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000
FXUS62 KJAX 151741
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
141 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through at least 06Z at the regional
terminals. Periods of MVFR visibilities will be possible overnight
at VQQ. The Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes will progress
inland this afternoon, with east to southeasterly winds remaining
sustained around 10 knots through around 23Z at SGJ, while
westerly surface winds around 5 knots at SSI shift to south-
southeasterly around 10 knots after 19Z. Light and variable
surface winds elsewhere will shift to southeasterly and will
increase to around 10 knots following the passage of the Atlantic
sea breeze later this afternoon, except at GNV, where surface
winds will shift to west-southwesterly and will increase to around
10 knots following the passage of the Gulf Coast sea breeze late
this afternoon. Surface winds will then shift to southerly at the
regional terminals by 01Z, with speeds diminishing overnight.
Southerly surface winds sustained around 5 knots are expected
after sunrise on Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Early afternoon surface analysis depicts Atlantic high pressure
(1026 millibars) centered near Bermuda, with this feature
extending its axis westward across the FL peninsula. Aloft...stout
ridging remains in place over the Bay of Campeche (southwestern
Gulf of Mexico), with this ridge axis extending northward through
the lower Mississippi Valley and through the Plains states. This
ridge continues to create deep and dry northwesterly flow aloft,
with large dewpoint depressions continuing below 850 millibars
(around 5,000 feet) per the morning sounding at Jacksonville. This
very dry air mass was again suppressing cumulus cloud development
throughout our region, with sunny skies boosting temperatures at
the noon hour to the upper 70s and lower 80s area-wide. Dewpoints
at 16Z were falling through the 40s and low to mid 50s.

Our tranquil weather pattern will continue during the balance of
the work week, with a loose local pressure gradient allowing the
Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes to develop and move well
inland during the afternoon and early evening hours, with these
boundaries likely colliding near the U.S. Highway 301 corridor
shortly after sunset this evening. The atmosphere will remain too
dry and subsident for more than scattered, flat cumulus
development along this boundaries later this afternoon and this
evening, and plenty of sunshine will combine with rising heights
aloft to allow highs to soar to the mid and upper 80s at all
inland locations this afternoon, while an onshore breeze keeps
coastal highs generally in the lower 80s.

Southerly low level flow overnight will begin to increase moisture
levels enough for patchy fog formation towards sunrise across
north central FL, with fog possibly extending into southern
portions of the St. Johns River basin. Thin cirrus cloudiness will
begin to spill over the ridge axis located to our west, with this
cloudiness beginning to move over inland southeast GA and the
Suwannee Valley towards sunrise. Otherwise, surface winds will
again decouple towards midnight, with better radiational cooling
conditions expected tonight, allowing lows to fall to the mid and
upper 50s inland, while a light southerly breeze continues along
the immediate coast, keeping lows in the lower 60s for locations
east of Interstate 95 early on Tuesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

High pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to extend its
axis westward across the northeast Florida waters through
Thursday, keeping a prevailing southerly wind flow in place across
our local waters. Seas of 2-3 feet will prevail near shore during
the next several days. Evening wind surges may briefly bring
speeds up towards Caution levels of 15-20 knots offshore, where
seas will build slightly to 3-4 feet tonight.

A weak cold front entering the southeastern states on Thursday
may stall over the Georgia waters by Friday, resulting in a brief
period of light and variable wind directions across our local
waters. Southwesterly winds may strengthen somewhat during the
weekend ahead of another approaching cold front, which could bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon and
evening.

Rip Currents: Developing onshore winds each afternoon will combine
with a lingering easterly ocean swell to keep a moderate rip
current risk at all area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A very dry air mass will be slow to loosen its grip over our
region this week, resulting in relative humidity values
crashing to near critical thresholds during the afternoon hours
today and again on Tuesday. Otherwise, light westerly transport
winds early this afternoon will shift to southwesterly across
inland portions of southeast GA, with speeds increasing to around
10 mph this afternoon. Transport winds across northeast and north
central FL will shift to southeasterly this afternoon. Elevated
mixing heights and slightly higher transport speeds will create
good daytime dispersion values across most of inland southeast GA,
with fair values forecast elsewhere. Southeasterly transport winds
will become breezy by Tuesday afternoon across northeast and north
central FL, which will combine with elevated mixing heights to
create good daytime dispersion values. Southerly transport winds
around 10 mph will result in mainly fair daytime dispersion values
across southeast GA on Tuesday. Transport winds will then shift to
southerly on Wednesday area-wide, with breezy southeasterly
surface winds expected at coastal locations during the afternoon
hours. Elevated mixing heights will continue, creating good
daytime dispersion values at most locations.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Water levels are cresting today in a moderate flood along the
Alapaha River near the Statenville gauge. Water levels are
expected to fall back to minor flooding by early Wednesday
morning, followed by the river falling below flood stage late on
Thursday. Minor flooding that will be occurring along lower
portions of the Suwannee River this week will also result in
continued rises in water levels along lower portions of the Santa
Fe River, with ongoing minor flooding rising to moderate flood
levels by Thursday morning and then approaching a major flood
during the early portions of next week. Water levels along the
lower Santa Fe near the gauge at Hildreth are expected to rise
above flood stage on Tuesday night, with minor flooding then
continuing during the next several days.

Water levels have crested just below a moderate flood along the
Satilla River near the gauge at Waycross, with water levels
expected to fall below flood stage later this week. Minor flooding
will continue during the next several days along the lower
Satilla River around the Atkinson gauge. Water levels have risen
above flood stage along upper portions of the Altamaha River near
the Baxley gauge, where minor flooding is forecast to continue
through early Friday morning. Water levels are still expected to
crest just below flood stage along upper portions of the Altamaha
River near the Charlotteville gauge towards midweek Otherwise,
water levels have fallen below flood stage along portions of the
St. Marys River near the Moniac gauge, with levels expected to
remain below flood stage downstream at the gauge near Macclenny.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  56  88  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  62  80  65  81 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  57  87  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  61  81  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  57  89  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  56  89  59  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$