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000
FXUS62 KKEY 150801
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
401 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
It has been a quiet night across the Florida Keys. GOES 16
Nighttime Microphysics shows a cumulus cloud field over the
Straits of Florida which is starting to show signs of dissipating.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 70s with dew
points in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. Surface high pressure
over the western North Atlantic remains the dominant weather
feature for the Keys. As a result, marine platforms are observing
northeast to east winds of 10 to 15 knots with Island Chain
communities observing near 10 mph.

.FORECAST...
A quiet week of weather is expected for the Florida Keys with the
exception of the wind which will ebb and flow through the week due
to expansive high pressure over the western North Atlantic. While
lower moisture is expected to increase some throughout the week,
latest forecast soundings and model cross-sections suggest that
this will be in a very narrow layer resulting in at best some low
level cumulus clouds, occasionally growing to stratocumulus. Over
the weekend, enough lower level moisture may be present to result
in at least slight chances which was kept from the previous
forecast update. However, there are signs subsequent updates may
lead to next weekend remaining dry as well. Expect mainly gentle
to moderate northeast to east breezes through the first half of
the week with a period of moderate to fresh breezes late Tuesday
into Tuesday night. This will be due to a wind surge around the
southwestern periphery of the western North Atlantic high. Wind
slackens on Wednesday through late week with winds veering to the
east to southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect
across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, moderate
to occasionally fresh northeast to east breezes will continue
today across the Keys coastal waters. High pressure just east of
the Florida Peninsula will slide into the west- central North
Atlantic, then remain in place through the middle of the week.
This will result in easterly moderate to modestly fresh breezes.
Thereafter, a secondary high pressure moving in from the Central
Plains will gradually blanket the Gulf of Mexico. This will result
in slackening east to southeast breezes for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
VFR and dry conditions will prevail at both island terminals
through the TAF period (ending 16/12Z). Mainly east winds
sustained 10 to 15 knots with frequent gusts near 20 knots are
expected. Otherwise, scattered stratocumulus bases 3500-4000 ft
are expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys Weather History, the daily record rainfall of
3.04" was recorded in 1942. Precipitation records date back to
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  80  73  82  75 /   0   0   0   0
Marathon  82  73  83  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW

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