353
FXUS64 KLCH 031149
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
649 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Convection has begun to redevelop over the last hour in
association with the next in a series of shortwaves working across
the region within the southwesterly flow aloft. Away from the
convection, areas of light fog have developed in response to the
light winds and abundant surface water. Expect this fog to be
disrupted by any approaching convection, but should otherwise
dissipate by 14Z as low level winds increase.

CAMS guidance has done a very poor job depicting convective
evolution over the last 24 hours and the convection currently
ongoing is about three hours earlier than most CAMS were
indicating so nearly all of them are presently being discounted in
favor of broader trends in the first 12 hours. No changes were
made to the ongoing Flash Flood Watch which continues to highlight
the most susceptible areas based on yesterday`s rainfall and the
latest flash flood guidance. While forecast QPF totals are not
expected to be nearly as high as was seen yesterday, it`s not
going to take much to overwhelm already full catch basins across
Southeast Texas and parts of southwest Louisiana.

Expect convection to lift off to the north by mid afternoon and
largely ending by 22-23Z. Similar to this morning, conditions
should be generally favorable for areas of light fog tonight into
Saturday morning. Another shortwave will pass north of the region
Saturday afternoon potentially initializing isolated to widely
scattered convection across interior parts of Southeast Texas and
Central Louisiana, but likely not making as far south as the I-10
corridor.

By Sunday, yet another shortwave will push across the region and
this one looks to be closer to the coast allowing for scattered
convection to develop across much of the region.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A drier pattern will offer a reprieve from the rain through much
of the upcoming work week as drier mid and upper level air will
advect into the region. The down side to the drier conditions will
be increasing temperatures with afternoon highs climbing into the
lower 90s across interior Southeast Texas and central Louisiana
and upper 80s closer by Wednesday through the end of the week. In
an airmass more typical of summer, any surge of moisture would
have the potential to produce some diurnally driven afternoon
convection, but these would be isolated and short lived.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
region through mid afternoon as an upper level disturbance works
through the area. Ceilings will fall to IFR in the vicinity of
storms with visibilities falling to a mile or less. Away from
storms, persistent southeasterly winds will prevail through the
early evening becoming light and somewhat variable overnight.
Ceilings will improve to VFR late this afternoon into early
evening before lowering to MVFR overnight. While not explicitly
mentioned in TAFs, areas of light fog will have the potential to
develop overnight where winds become light.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop through the
morning and continue through early afternoon before moving inland.
Moderate onshore flow will develop away from storms and small
craft should exercise caution through tonight. Light onshore flow
and low seas will prevail through the rest of the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  79  65  86  66 /  80  20  30  10
LCH  81  70  84  71 /  80  10  10  10
LFT  82  70  86  71 /  80  10  10   0
BPT  82  71  84  72 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ027>032-141.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66