Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 260845
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
345 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Upper negative tilt trough from Saskatchewan to near Kansas City
early this morning. Low pressure over Iowa this morning has a cold
front southward that is very close to Interstate 55 at 3 AM CDT. A
nearly solid area of showers and scattered thunderstorms was near
and just east of the frontal boundary. Temperatures were in the
lower and middle 70s ahead of the front, but in the 50s well
behind the front at 3 AM.

While the Tornado Watch expired at 2 AM CDT, an isolated strong
storm can`t be entirely ruled out over the next few hours near the
coast.

Current plan is to allow Wind Advisory and Coastal Flood Advisory
to expire at 4 AM CDT coincident with morning forecast issuance.
With the passage of the surface trough, and jet dynamics pulling
well to the north of the area, the pressure gradient weakens
quickly with the wind speeds dropping quickly this morning.
Precipitation will also end rather quickly this morning with
little or no precipitation beyond noon.

We`ll likely see a period of sunny skies this afternoon and mostly
clear skies overnight. However, the upper longwave trough axis
won`t move east of the area until Wednesday night or Thursday.
Likely to be a good bit of mid and high cloud cover on Wednesday,
which may retard heating a bit.

Still should see enough sunshine the next couple days to allow
high temperatures to reach into the upper 60s to mid 70s. As is
usually the case with northerly winds, the warmest daytime highs
may actually be on the Mississippi coast and over northshore
locations. Overnight lows likely to be cooler than normal, but
won`t head toward the coolest guidance due to some questions as to
cloud cover and wind speed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Trough axis passes to the east of the area on Thursday with upper
ridging building into the area through the weekend and probably
Monday. Little or no precipitation expected through the Easter
weekend. With the surface high over the area Thursday and just
east of the area Friday, temperatures those two days will be near
to a bit below normal. That would keep highs in the low to mid 70s
in most areas, and lows in the 40s away from the warmer marine
waters. For the remainder of the holiday weekend, the surface high
will be off the Florida East Coast with onshore winds bringing
warmer air to the area. Above normal temperatures are expected,
with highs Sunday and Monday in the lower to middle 80s across the
area. Overnight lows generally upper 50s to mid 60s from Saturday
night onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to
slowly progress to the east. This broken line of convection will
produce periods of IFR visibilities between 1 and 3 miles and a
mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings between 800 and 2000 feet. The
convective line is expected to be east of all of the terminals by
15z. Rapidly clearing skies and VFR conditions will then take hold
by 18z and remain in place through the end of the forecast period.
PG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

With the surface pressure gradient weakening a bit, letting the
Gale Warning expire at 4 AM CDT with Small Craft Advisories in
their place until noon CDT, primarily for seas over the open
coastal waters. May be brief periods where Small Craft Exercise
Caution headlines are necessary Wednesday and Thursday with the
cooler and drier northerly winds. No major impacts to mariners
anticipated for Friday through at least Sunday afternoon under
high pressure.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  44  68  43 /  30   0   0   0
BTR  77  48  74  48 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  78  50  76  48 /  20   0   0   0
MSY  76  56  74  54 /  20   0   0   0
GPT  77  52  75  50 /  40   0   0   0
PQL  79  50  78  48 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for LAZ034>037-
     039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     LAZ069-070-076-078.

GM...Gale Warning until 4 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT today for GMZ552-555-557-570-
     572-575-577.

MS...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for MSZ068>071-
     077-083>088.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     MSZ086.

GM...Gale Warning until 4 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT today for GMZ555-557-570-572-
     575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RW


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