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000
FXUS65 KLKN 200931
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
231 AM PDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather present thru the weekend and into early
next week with afternoon breezes. Active pattern returns Tuesday
as rain showers enter the forecast for northern Nevada. Gusty
winds and increasing PoPs thru the end of the week with
opportunity for wetting rain and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Night

Shortwave ridge moves across Nevada today and tonight. Some
cloudiness and afternoon cumulus are expected though weather
remains dry. Skies become mostly clear overnight. Westerly
afternoon breezes will also be present with gusts around 20 mph.
Winds become light to calm overnight. Similar weather Sunday as a
shortwave moves thru the PacNW and westerly flow remains situated
over Nevada. Dry weather looks to persist and main weather
effects Sunday will again be partly cloudy skies and
westerly/northwesterly afternoon breezes with gusts 20 to 25 mph.

Warming trend continues thru the weekend with daytime high
temperatures today in the low 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in
the low 30s to low 40s. Daytime highs Sunday reside in the
upper 60s to upper 70s with overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday

Models have been trending slight faster with the change to an
active pattern forecast to affect the Silver State beginning
Tuesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF agree with showing a progressive
split flow pattern setup with quick moving northern, and southern
stream upper level shortwave ridges transiting Nevada Monday, with
the northern ridge leading the southern by about ½ a day in time.
However as the ridges move east of NV a pair of upper level
troughs will approach the coast. The main feature will be a
northern stream long wave trough digging south out of the gulf of
Alaska and a much weaker southern stream shortwave counterpart.
These next systems will begin influence Nevada, with the northern
trough approaching the Pacific NW coast, and the southern system
approaching central CA, Tuesday morning. Models are still a bit
unsure given the split flow pattern on how manage the interaction
of the northern and southern stream systems, but chances are
improving for a prolonged period of active weather with several
rounds of rain and snow showers that begin Tuesday and last
through at least Saturday perhaps longer. Lead shortwave will
transit NV Tuesday evening through Wednesday, as this first
shortwave passes through, and will be followed by a stronger
shortwave Thursday evening into Saturday morning, a third will
follow through Sunday. This first system at this time doesn’t look
to well organized, but models show a 20% of isolated rain showers
Tuesday evening, increasing to 40% by Wednesday morning. After a
brief lull Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning the
stronger of the pair of systems will move into NV Thursday and
Friday with each bringing a 40% to 60% of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with some snow above 8000 ft. Amounts with the first
system look to be on the very light side with up to 0.05” for the
valleys and passes, and up to 0.10” for the mountains. Forecast
snow levels look to be very high with this first system, above
9000 ft, so the precipitation will fall mainly as a light rain. As
for the second system, QPF looks to run about up to 0.25” of rain
for the valleys and passes, this shortwave will be cooler with
snow levels falling to near 6000 ft across northern NV (7000 ft
for central NV), and delivering up to 5” of snow for the mountain
peaks. The third round gets underway late Saturday night across
Humboldt county, and strength-wise looks to be weaker that the
second. Temperatures and Winds: Spring like temperatures will
continue for the Silver State through Wednesday of next week as
daytime highs range in upper 60s to low 80s. Highs cool for
Thursday into the weekend with the upper system overhead, back
into the upper 50s to upper 60s. Overnight lows will follow a
similar trend with lows hovering in the upper 30s to upper 40s
through Wednesday. Lows cool a bit also with the active pattern
with lows in the upper 20 to upper 30s for Thursday into the
weekend. Winds will be generally out of the W to SW at speeds of
10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH through the weekend. Winds
shift to more of a W to NW direction Thursday through Saturday as
a upper trough reaches NV, but will remain at similar speeds of 10
to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH possible.

&&

.AVIATION...Dry with VFR conditions at all terminals over the
next 24 hours, along with relatively light winds and occasional
mid and high clouds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Many streams, creeks, and rivers across northern and
central Nevada continue to observe elevated flows. Mostly dry
conditions are expected through the weekend and into early next
week, however temperatures also continue trend warmer which will
help to accelerate the melting of mid and high elevation snowpack.

The Bruneau River is currently in action stage, but may rise to
minor flood stage in the coming days.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently in action
stage and expected to slowly recede over the coming days.

The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently in action stage and
expected to gradually rise in the coming days, forecast to
reach minor flood stage in the Wednesday timeframe.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City is expected to remain in
minor flood stage for the next several days.

Wildhorse Dam is currently in action stage and is expected to
gradually rise, but remain below minor flood stage over the next
several days.

The Humboldt River at Comus is expected to reach action stage
later today. Additional rises are forecast with the river
reaching near flood stage in the Tuesday timeframe.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

92/98/96