Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
817 FXUS61 KLWX 010747 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 347 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move south of the area today. Weak high pressure will build over the area tonight. A backdoor cold front will move across the area Thursday night and settle south of the area over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Patchy dense fog has developed over the Shenandoah valley. Will continue to monitor for potential Dense Fog Advisory in the next couple of hours. Weak shortwave trough and associated cold front will move south of the area today with dry air advection expected on light NW winds. Mid-high level clouds will depart later this morning leading to clear skies by mid to late morning. It will be cooler and less humid today with temperatures in the mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Upper ridging builds over the area Thursday through Saturday supporting generally fair weather conditions. Temps jump back at or above 90F Thu as wind turn southerly, but begin to cool down Fri as backdoor front moves through the area. Temps drop further over the weekend as strong wedge settles over the area. Strengthening onshore flow late Fri night will result in a low overcast with rain/drizzle Fri night into Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface low pressure and the associated cold fronts will move over the forecast area this weekend, bringing increased chances for rain showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. Plenty of moisture (PWATS 1.25-1.5") will make isolated instances of flooding possible with the WPC having the western portion of the forecast area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday morning. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 60s for most with overnight lows in the 50s. On Sunday, high temperatures will be in the 60s to mid 70s areawide with overnight low temperatures expected to be in the 50s to low 60s. Come Monday, the aforementioned area of low pressure will over the Atlantic off the east coast while weak front dips down through the forecast area. This front will lift north as a warm front throughout the day on Tuesday with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms possible both days. The slight warming trend continues with high temperatures in the 70s both days. Those near the metro areas may get into the low 80s on Tuesday. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s both nights. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mid-high level clouds departing later this morning with P6SM SKC developing by mid to late morning. Light NW winds today, then becoming southerly Thu. Multiple cold fronts will bring showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm to the terminals both Saturday and Sunday. Sub-VFR conditions are expected at times on both days. In additions to reduced CIGs and VSBYs, southeasterly winds will gust up to 20 knots on Saturday and 10-15 knots on Sunday. && .MARINE... No hazards expected through Thu night. SCA conditions likely Fri into the weekend. Gusty southeasterly winds will gust between 15-25 knots on Saturday as multiple cold fronts bring showers and isolated thunderstorms to the waters. Small Craft Advisories are likely both Saturday and Sunday. While winds diminish slightly on Sunday, gusts 15-20 knots are possible in the afternoon. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...AVS AVIATION...AVS/LFR MARINE...AVS/LFR