Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FNUS74 KLZK 131326
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Briar Creek...USFS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
826 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1000 CDT on March 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (800) 482-8471 and ask for the fire
weather forecaster if you have any questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Expect dry and fair weather conditions during the day on
Wednesday. Surface winds will be out of the south-southwest.
Rain and thunderstorm chances will be back in the
forecast tonight.

.TODAY...

Max temperature.....64 at forecast start...Max 77.
Min humidity........84 percent at forecast start...Min 54 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 23 mph.
Stability class.....3.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (5-15 percent).
Dispersion..........29 increasing to 59 in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at forecast start...max 4.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4700 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 5333 ft MSL.
Category Day........4.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............64  66  69  72  74  76  77  77
RH..............84  81  76  66  62  58  57  54
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  12  12  13  14  14
20 FT wind gust.17  17  17  18  19  20  22  22
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.15  16  17  18  21  22  23  21
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10

.TONIGHT...

Min temperature.....Min 63.
Max humidity........Max 97 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 18 mph.
Stability class.....4.
LVORI...............4.
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the evening.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    evening.
Dispersion..........33 decreasing to 15 in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.06 inches.
Pcpn amount.........0.06 inches.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 1800 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 2379 ft MSL.
Category Day........2.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....            SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............76  75  72  70  69  68  67  66  66  65  65  64
RH..............55  57  63  67  70  73  75  77  82  87  88  90
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..13  14  12  13  13  14  13  13  14  14  14  13
20 FT wind gust.21  21  19  20  21  21  21  21  22  22  22  20
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.18  16  16  16  16  16  16  16  16  17  17  16
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  20  20  20  30  30  40  40  40  40  40

.THURSDAY...

Max temperature.....Max 79.
Min humidity........Min 62 percent.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 22 mph.
Stability class.....4.
LVORI...............4 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the morning, then
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Dispersion..........14 increasing to 58.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.31 inches.
Pcpn amount.........0.31 inches.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 5400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 6044 ft MSL.
Category Day........4.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY
Temp............63  63  63  65  68  71  73  75  77  78  79  79
RH..............92  96  97  93  91  82  76  71  67  64  63  62
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..13  12  12  12  13  13  13  13  13  14  15  14
20 FT wind gust.20  19  18  19  20  20  20  20  21  23  23  22
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.16  15  15  16  17  20  21  22  22  21  20  17
Chc of pcpn (%).40  50  50  60  60  70  70  80  70  70  70  70

$$
Forecaster...D Cooper
Requested by...Taylor Paxton
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2406750.0/LZK
.DELDT 03/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL taylor.paxton@usda.gov


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