599
FXUS64 KMAF 292323
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

WV satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving east of Texas
today while weak ridging builds in, and a thermal ridge axis is
displaced just to the west of the region. This should keep
temperatures above normal the next few days, with upper 80s today
and low to mid 90s tomorrow. While it`ll be a gorgeous day today,
the dryline will sharpen up tomorrow as southerly surface flow in
response to lee troughing helps usher in low-level moisture to the
eastern CWA. A disturbance will move across West Texas on Tuesday,
and this should be sufficient for storms to develop off the dryline
in the afternoon and early evening, some of which may become severe.
Sounding samples show a decent amount of CAPE just to the east of
the region, around 1500-2000 J/kg, but shear remains marginal at
best so the severe threat will be limited a bit. Still, the good ol`
Pecos County supercell can`t be ruled out, as it is that time of
year and some of the Hi-res CAMs continue to place a storm in that
vicinity. Regardless of where storms initiate, the main threats will
be damaging wind and large hail, primarily for the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. Any and all storms should move east of
the area by late Tuesday evening, and temperatures will remain mild
overnight, mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

-Zuber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Wednesday, the dryline is forecast to be along the Pecos River in
the north, and as far west as Candelaria in the south, courtesy of a
35+kt LLJ Tuesday night advecting 70+F dewpoints up the lower Trans
Pecos by sunup.  By 18Z, the dryline in the south is forecast to
move very little, whereas the northern half is forecast to extend
through Seminole-Andrews-western Pecos County.  Up top, southwest
flow aloft is forecast, with a shortwave moving up from Chihuahua,
setting things up for a possible afternoon/evening severe event.
This is too far out for hi-res CAMs, but by afternoon, the NAM12
develops sbcapes along/east of the dryline in excess of 4000 J/kg,
whereas the lower-res GFS still comes in with 2500+ J/kg.  Given the
pletora of boundary-layer moisture, this is not unreasonable.  Long-
range models increase deep-lyr shear along the dryline throughout
the afternoon, to 40kts or better by 00Z Thursday.  Steep mid-lvl
lapse rates are a given, and low-lvl SRH cranks up after 00Z as the
LLJ redevelops.  Both the NAM and GFS develop the Pecos County
supercell along the dryline, and this time of year, models would be
suspect if they didn`t.  West of the dryline, elevated fire wx
conditions will be present due to critical RH.  Highs should remain
above normal.  This severe convective activity should continue into
the evening hours.

Thursday, a cold front will approach the area, but may hang up
diurnally depending on timing.  Attm, it looks to shave a few
degrees off temperatures in the north, and keep a chance of
convection in the warm sector northeast, but the bulk of the CAA
doesn`t arrive until after sundown Thursday.  Instead, increased
westerlies west of the dryline may combine with single-digit RH for
critical fire weather conditions.

Friday through the weekend, temperatures behind the front will be
near or even below normal, increasing RH and providing a little
respite from fire wx.  Saturday, models bring a shortwave into the
area through southwest flow aloft, for a chance of convection over
most of the CWA.  Chances will taper off W-E Sunday.

Monday, thicknesses jump with the approach of the next upper trough,
w/increased westerlies driving temperatures well-above normal,
making Monday perhaps the warmest day this forecast as highs top out
~ 7-9F above normal.  These increased winds will combine w/critical
RH west of the dryline for another potential critical fire wx day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions and modest southwest to southeasterly winds will
continue the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               63  93  65  90 /   0  20  10  30
Carlsbad                 53  93  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   67  94  69  90 /   0  20  10  30
Fort Stockton            62  95  65  92 /   0  20  10  40
Guadalupe Pass           57  83  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    55  90  57  92 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    48  88  50  88 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport     63  92  65  89 /   0  10  10  30
Odessa                   64  92  66  90 /   0  10  10  30
Wink                     59  95  63  95 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...10