841
ACUS11 KWNS 070213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070213
OKZ000-070315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0666
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0913 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

Areas affected...Parts of southwest into central/northeast OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 189...

Valid 070213Z - 070315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 189 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, hail, and severe gusts will
approach the I-35 corridor in central OK through 10 PM CDT, with
redevelopment still possible into southwest OK.

DISCUSSION...A tendency toward upscale growth has been noted this
evening from northern into west-central OK, with embedded supercells
tending to traverse the outflow of downstream storms, resulting in a
gradually expanding cold pool. As a result, cells have generally
struggled to become tornadic, despite a very favorable environment
across the region. While the storm mode is currently rather
unfavorable, any persistent discrete supercell will still pose a
tornado threat. Conditional strong tornado potential remains evident
across the region, with strong buoyancy and deep-layer shear, and
0-1 km SRH of around 300 m2/s2. Line-embedded tornadoes will also be
possible, especially if any more prominent bowing segments can
develop.

The greatest short-term tornado threat may be associated with the
trailing cells in the cluster, if they can avoid being undercut by
outflow. These cells will approach the I-35 corridor in central OK
through 10 PM CDT. The discrete cell moving into southeast Osage
County in northeast OK will also pose a tornado threat.

Farther southwest, a cluster of cumulus remains evident on IR
satellite into southwest OK and northwest TX, and redevelopment
remains possible across this region a little later this evening, as
the Pacific cold front continues to move eastward, and increasing
ascent noted on WV imagery begins to overspread the warm sector.
While evolution of any later development remains somewhat uncertain,
supercells capable of all severe hazards would be possible if
additional storms develop.

..Dean.. 05/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35499894 35929840 36449764 36499755 36769692 36809615
            36439601 36099640 35869672 35389723 34659875 34509927
            34569964 34829970 35009943 35499894