833
FXUS64 KMEG 291614
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1114 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A mild and overcast morning across the Mid-South at this hour.
Temperatures are steady around the 70 degree mark. The latest KNQA
radar sweep reveals a poleward fetch of showers traveling nearly
parallel to the Mississippi River. A few pockets of heavier
returns were seen near Shelby County, TN in the past couple of
scans. The latest GOES East Water Vapor Imagery loop shows an
closed upper low over the Dakotas, deep southwesterly flow over
the Mississippi Valley, a shortwave digging over southeast Texas,
and a highly amplified ridge over the eastern CONUS.

The overall trend is for showers to continue through this
afternoon across much of the Mid-South with the potential for
some lightning to develop by early afternoon, as the
aforementioned Texas shortwave lifts into the Lower Mississippi
Valley. The severe threat remains low, however, lightning and
heavy rainfall are both possible. There is a potential for some
stronger instability to develop along and east of the Mississippi
River, which could enhance both a heavy rainfall threat and a
limited wind threat this afternoon.

No major changes were made to the forecast grids. Forecast is on
track with temperatures nearly steady across much of the area.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A wet and unsettled pattern will continue today with rain chances
increasing this afternoon. Daily bouts of rainfall will resume on
Wednesday with chances for widespread shower and thunderstorm
development Friday. Somewhat cooler and drier conditions are
expected this upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Remnant showers from the QLCS that pushed through southern
Arkansas on Sunday are struggling to overcome the stable
environment across the Mid-South. As a result, showers continue to
diminish over northwest Mississippi. A few showers may continue
through mid-morning, but overall coverage will be sparse.

There exists potential for showers and storms to redevelop this
afternoon as a large upper low pushes into the Great Lakes Region,
ejecting a cold front into central Arkansas. Storm development may
further be aided by a shortwave that is progged to develop within
the trough axis by 18Z. Given overcast skies and highs in the low
to mid 70s today, only marginal instability will be in place this
afternoon. Therefore, any storm that does form should remain
subsevere. A few strong storms may be possible if more instability
is realized, but overall the threat is low.

Behind today`s system, an upper level ridging pattern will emerge
with high pressure centered over southeast CONUS. Both the GFS and
ECMWF continue to depict embedded shortwaves rotating around the
periphery of the ridge by Wednesday. As a result, daily rounds of
precipitation will be possible through the end of the week.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday as
a negatively tilted trough pushes into the Great Lakes Region,
bringing a cold front towards the Mid-South. Thunderstorms will
likely develop along and ahead of this boundary, but the severe
weather threat at this time appears low given lack luster wind
shear.

Unfortunately, it appears at this time that the aforementioned
front will washout over the Mid-South on Saturday. Therefore,
expect rain chances to persist into the weekend with afternoon
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Primary forecast concern today will be timing and coverage of
TSRA. Latest CAMs appear overdone with respect to instability and
surface winds at 12Z TAF onset. SPC mesoanalysis showed nil to minimal
instability in the convective outflow from overnight SHRA to the
west. This SHRA will spread into MEM shortly and will likely delay
convective destabilization until midafternoon.

Sufficient destabilization for TSRA appears more likely by late
afternoon, given the approach of a distinct shortwave trough. TCF
concurs, with sparse coverage depicted.

Late evening/early overnight IFR/MVFR CIGs appear a good behind
the departing shortwave trough.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB