Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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730 FXUS62 KMFL 121119 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 719 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 A weakening cold front has moved into South Florida on this Mother`s Day morning. While lacking much support to mean much in terms of cooler temperatures or wetting rainfall, the front could bring some increase cloud cover initially to start the morning. As a low over the central plains advances today, the front will retreat back northward returning southern Florida back into a hot air mass for Monday and Tuesday. The lack of deeper moisture and support aloft for widespread convection will mean that the only relief from the heat could be the potential for some sea breeze showers (and maybe a thunderstorm) to develop with peak heating in the afternoons and evenings over the interior spine of the peninsula. The temperatures will continue to be in the 90s across much of the area early in the week except for sea breeze cooled areas along the coast. Triple digit heat index values, particularly by Monday afternoon, point towards a developing heat illness threat for the week. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 A mid-level low will attempt to cut off from the mean flow aloft mid to late week as it moves from the Mississippi River valley across the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. The associated surface cold front will attempt to pinch the high pressure over much of the peninsula of Florida south and east by late week but will not have enough support to reach southern Florida. Accordingly, South Florida will see an increase in low level moisture but will lack the convective relief or change in airmass to help moderate temperatures. A window for hazardous heat could open by Wednesday that could linger through the end of the week. Going beyond triple digit heat index values, much of southern Florida could experience heat necessitating either a Heat Advisory or potentially Excessive Heat Warnings. Of particular concern mid to late week is that overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s. This could lead to a period of several days where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk. By next weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic off the Mid-Atlantic states but not every solution shows a southward advancement of the associated front. Therefore the forecast uncertainty increases late Friday into Saturday. If the high persists over South Florida, then likely will the heat. If the front is able to reach the area, there could be some brief relief from the heat. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 715 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Continuing SCT MVFR ceilings still possible this morning at APF, then SCT MVFR ceilings possible this afternoon over the Atlantic terminals. Winds continue to veer NNE this morning, then E by 18Z. Speeds will increase into the 10-15 kts with higher gusts. APF will again see a westerly Gulf breeze this afternoon. Winds wane to 5-10 kts tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Winds will shift northerly this morning as a decaying cold front moves across the waters. There might be enough lingering moisture for additional showers to develop today, mainly over the Atlantic waters. The high building back in for much of the week should lower rain chances for the most part of the waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 There will be an elevated risk for rip currents today for the Palm Beaches. The risk for rip currents will further increase for all of the Atlantic beaches on Monday as easterly flow strengthens. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 A relatively dry air mass will remain in place with minimum relative humidity values around 30 to 40 percent over the interior portions of South Florida. This combined with the lack of recent wetting rainfall could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions even with winds forecasted to remain below critical thresholds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 77 88 80 / 10 10 20 10 West Kendall 92 75 90 77 / 20 10 20 10 Opa-Locka 91 76 90 78 / 10 10 20 10 Homestead 91 77 88 79 / 10 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 88 77 86 79 / 10 10 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 87 77 87 79 / 10 10 30 10 Pembroke Pines 91 77 91 79 / 10 10 20 10 West Palm Beach 87 75 87 77 / 10 10 30 10 Boca Raton 87 76 88 78 / 10 10 30 20 Naples 90 75 92 78 / 10 10 20 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ AVIATION...17