Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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625 FXUS62 KMHX 090700 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 300 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves through the area on Friday, followed by high pressure over the weekend. Another front will come through around the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 3 AM Thu...Upper level trough over the Great Lakes begins to pivot to the south and east while a jet streak begins to expand over the Mid-Atlantic and sfc low develops increasing lift today. At the mid levels a fairly potent mid level shortwave rounds the base of the trough and tracks over the Mid- Atlantic this afternoon/evening while at the surface deepening low pressure system in the Great Lakes tracks NE`wards into the Northeast with its associated cold front nearing western NC and a prefrontal trough setting up over the Coastal Plain this evening. MCS continues to push eastward into western SC and the NC Piedmont early this morning. Latest guidance shows it reaching our western counties around 6-8am and pushing across the forecast area through the morning, then likely offshore by noon. There is some uncertainty about the strength of the storms as they move into the region, with diurnal minimum of instability, however there may be enough upper level support for a few strong to marginally severe storms bringing gusty winds, hail and frequent lightning. Trends show the line weakening a bit over the last few hours, with storm reports and obs showing wind gusts 30-40 mph. There is potential for convective redevelopment later this afternoon and evening, with another threat for svr wx. Out ahead of the trough and approaching cold front the environment across ENC appears rather supportive for severe weather. Model soundings and latest CAMs suggest ample MLCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) as well as ample DCAPE (700-900 J/kg) and inverted V soundings across the region. In addition to this, deep layer wind shear of 25-35 kt, slightly stronger forcing, and mid level lapse rates closer to 6.5- 7.0 C/km all suggest we will have another threat for strong to severe thunderstorms, bringing a threat for damaging wind gusts and hail. ENC remains in a slight risk for severe weather. On the flip side of that, some of the CAMs show very little shower/tstm activity this afternoon and evening, with this mornings MCS lowering the severe threat, as ENC gets robbed of more robust dynamics and moisture. So another challenging and low confidence convective forecast today. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Thu...Weak low pressure will strengthen near the VA/NC border overnight as associated cold front begins to push into eastern NC. Low end svr threat will continue into the evening hours, likely diminishing with loss of diurnal heating. Any lingering convection will push off the coast by late this evening. Some guidance shows potential for patchy fog development inland overnight, but at this time think light WSW winds will limit development. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As 315 AM Wed...ENC then dries out over the weekend as high pressure ridge builds in from the west and remains over the area into early next week. Next potential round of unsettled weather begins to approach the area around midweek next week. Friday through early next week... Upper level troughing finally pivots out of the Great Lakes and overspreads the Mid-Atlantic on Fri into Sat with the last and likely strongest mid level shortwave rounding this troughs base on Fri. At the surface, low pressure in the Northeast will continue to trek NE`wards while its associated cold front finally tracks across the region slowing as it pushes offshore. A wave of low pressure then develops along this frontal boundary on Fri as well and tracks along or near the coast. Once again kept thunder in the grids for Fri as HREF and NBM probs continue to highlight the potential for about 250-500 J/kg of SBCAPE to remain over the area. Either way Friday looks to have the best shot at widespread precip. Through the weekend and into next week general troughing remains over the Eastern Seaboard before gradually ejecting out into the Canadian Maritimes as upper level ridging begins to overspread the Southeast. Dry frontal passage currently forecast Sun evening into Mon before surface ridging begins to overspread ENC from the west on Mon. Temps do cool over the weekend closer to normal. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 250 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, though there will be a few opportunities for sub-VFR. The first will be this morning towards sunrise, when another MCS currently moving through the NC Piedmont, which could impact the terminals between 10-15z. Strong winds and hail will be possible, though svr threat may remain limited due to relative minimum in instability. Scattered convective redevelopment will be possible this afternoon and evening which could lead to brief periods of sub-VFR. Patchy fog will be possible inland overnight into early Friday morning, though light winds may limit potential. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 315 AM Wed...Higher potential for widespread sub-VFR conditions on Friday as a cold front moves through the area and more widespread shower activity is forecast. As we get into the weekend and into early next week VFR conditions are then forecast for the rest of the period as high pressure ridging gradually builds in from the west. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 250 AM Thu...Latest obs show S-SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt and seas 3-5 ft. Pressure and thermal gradients will strengthen through the day, with SW winds increasing to 15-25 kt. SCAs continue for the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound, with 15-25 kt winds developing by late morning and peaking late this afternoon and evening. Seas will grad build, peaking at 4-7 ft. Gradient will slowly relax late tonight and early Fri morning with seas slowly subsiding. Area of showers and tstms may impact the waters towards daybreak this morning, with potential redevelopment this afternoon and evening. Some storms may be strong to severe with strong winds and hail. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 315 AM Wed...Still expecting a cold front passage Fri morning with shower and thunderstorm activity out ahead of the front Thurs afternoon and evening. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity possible once again on Fri across all waters as the front pushes offshore and a weak wave of low pressure develops along the front. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be possible within any thunderstorm that impacts our waters. Drier weather then expected this weekend and into early next week. Otherwise we start the period out under SCA conditions from Oregon Inlet south and across the Pamlico Sound as SW`rly winds out ahead of the cold front quickly increase after daybreak on Thursday to 15-25 kts with gusts in excess of 25-30 kts. Elsewhere across the northern waters and sounds as well as the inland rivers, slightly lighter winds will persist closer to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up around 25 kts, though will have to monitor trends in case inclusion of SCA`s becomes necessary especially along the N`rn coastal waters and Neuse river. As the front nears and eventually pushes offshore Fri morning SW`rly winds then decrease down to 10-15 kts, thus ending SCA`s across all waters. Behind the front winds gradually turn to a W and then NW direction at 10-15 kts. By Sat light and variable winds are forecast as high pressure ridge gradually builds in from the west with W`rly flow at 10-15 kts returning Sun into early next week. 3-5 ft seas along our coastal waters to start the period quickly increase on Thurs to 5-8 ft. Seas then lower just as quickly on Fri morning back down to 3-5 ft and then to 2-4 ft by Fri evening remaining at these heights into early next week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...RCF AVIATION...CQD/RCF MARINE...CQD/RCF