Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 280900 CCA
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
455 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Today-Tonight...Cold front will push across the area today, with
scattered to numerous showers initially moving into areas
northwest of I-4 through early this morning along and ahead of
this boundary. This activity will break up some as it shifts
southeastward, becoming more scattered in coverage through late
morning before shifting offshore by mid afternoon. Overall
instability remains rather low through early morning, but isolated
thunderstorm development is still possible. Strengthening
southwest winds aloft up to 30-40 knots from 925mb-700mb, and cold
temps aloft around -10C at 500 mb may still allow for a few
strong storms to develop, with the main threats being gusty winds
up to 40-45 mph and small hail. However, better potential for this
to occur would primarily be south of a line from Melbourne to
Lake Kissimmee where a brief window of increasing instability will
develop toward mid morning through early afternoon before this
activity shifts offshore.

Drier conditions and clearing skies will rapidly build in behind the
front, with breezy to windy conditions developing from mid morning
through the afternoon. W/SW winds will become NW behind the front
with speeds between 15 to 25 mph occurring, and gusts up to 35 mph
at times possible. Despite the frontal passage, temps are still
forecast to reach the upper 70s to low 80s into the afternoon.

Winds diminish past sunset out of the north, but still remain breezy
along the immediate coast/barrier islands through the evening and
much of the overnight. Clears skies and cooler conditions are
forecast tonight, with lows falling to the low to mid 50s for much
of the area.

Friday-Sunday...High pressure (~1024mb) is forecast to build over
the Deep Southeast and move east over northern Florida Friday
afternoon, before moving offshore over the western Atlantic
Saturday morning. As this occurs, north-northeast winds at
10-15mph with gusts to 25mph will weaken and veer onshore from the
east-southeast Saturday at around 10mph with generally light and
variable winds well inland. Cooler and drier air (PWATs in the
0.40-0.75" range) will filter in with northeast flow across the
region Friday with dew points expected to drop into the 40s Friday
afternoon and the low to mid 50s Saturday. Friday will start off
chilly with lows in the low 50s to near 60 degrees, before
reaching the low to upper 70s for highs under sunny skies. Lows
are forecast to reach the upper 40s to low 50s inland west of
I-95, as well as across coastal Volusia Saturday. Highs are
forecast to reach near-normal with the upper 70s to low 80s and
plenty of sunshine Saturday. Sunday will be much like Saturday but
a little warmer with lows in the low 50s to near 60s degrees and
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Poor to hazardous conditions
will continue over the local Atlantic and at the beaches Friday.

Monday-Wednesday...Flow will veer offshore into Monday as high
pressure works its way farther downstream over the western
Atlantic. Meanwhile, the mid/upper level ridge is forecast to
build over the Gulf of Mexico and the Deep South Monday and the
Deep Southeast, including the state of Florida Tuesday, with 500mb
heights reaching 588dm across north-central Florida. Guidance
then shows a cold front stretching across the eastern seaboard
from low pressure located over the Midwest, before the front
tracks east-southeast across central Florida into the day
Wednesday. Global models are in good agreement on timing but
differ in strength. The ECMWF shows the strongest solution with
the GFS and CMC indicating a setup similar to the past few cold
fronts with the front weakening as it enters central Florida.
However, the majority of ECMWF ensemble members also show a weaker
setup. Regardless, dry conditions are forecast through Tuesday
with PWATs below 1". Rain chances then return Wednesday with PoPs
rising to 20-40%, in addition to increasing southwest winds at
15-20mph ahead of the cold front.

Temperatures will warm above average each day with lows in the upper
50s to low 60s and highs in the low to upper 80s Monday. Lows are
expected to reach the low to mid 60s Tuesday and the mid 60s to near
70 degrees Wednesday. Afternoon highs are forecast to rise into the
mid 80s to near 90 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday with partly cloudy
skies Tuesday becoming cloudy Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Today-Tonight...Poor boating conditions this morning will become
hazardous across the coastal waters as winds increase with a passing
cold front over the area. W/SW winds up to 15-20 knots early this
morning will become N/NW around 20-25 knots into the afternoon.
Occasional gusts up to gale force will be possible over the offshore
waters during the afternoon and evening hours. Seas will build from
4-6 feet this morning up to 6-8 feet offshore through the afternoon,
and up to 7-10 feet across the waters into tonight. A Small Craft
Advisory goes into effect offshore by late morning and expands to
include all of the waters at 2PM this afternoon. The Small Craft
Advisory will then continue across the entire coastal waters into
tonight.

Friday-Monday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions will gradually
improve into the weekend. Northeast winds at 15-20kts are expected
to veer onshore Saturday and Sunday at 8-12kts, before veering south-
southwest Monday. Seas will range from 5-7ft nearshore and up to 7-
9ft offshore over the Gulf Stream Friday, then subside to 3-4ft
nearshore and up to 5 ft offshore Saturday, and 2-4ft over the local
Atlantic (0-60nm) Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Today...A cold front will cross the area this morning and early
afternoon, with scattered showers and isolated storms developing
with this boundary and shifting offshore. Breezy to windy NW
winds between 15 to 25 mph will develop behind the front, with
gusts up to 35 mph possible at times through this afternoon. Much
drier air will quickly filter in behind the front, with Min RH
values falling as low as the upper 30s to low 40s across the
interior, and high dispersion values developing through the
afternoon. This will lead to increase in fire sensitivity today,
with control problems possible with any new or existing brush
fires.

Friday-Sunday...Fire sensitive conditions are expected late week
and into the weekend. Northeast winds at 8-12knots are forecast
Friday, before veering onshore with light and variable winds well
inland Saturday. Winds are then forecast to veer south-southwest
inland at 5-10kts and onshore along the coast into Sunday
afternoon. Minimum RH values are expected to drop into the upper
20s to low 40 Friday and Saturday afternoons, then the mid 30s to
mid 40s Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Some mixing is occurring in spots allowing for breezy winds to
already develop early this morning, especially around the Orlando
metro area. MVFR cigs are already beginning to move ahead of an
approaching cold front, with localized IFR cigs possible, especially
with any showers or isolated storms that begin to move into areas
northwest of I-4 toward daybreak and through early this morning.
MVFR cigs and tempo IFR/MVFR visibilities in passing showers and
isolated storms will continue to shift southward across east
central Florida with the front through the morning and early
afternoon hours.

Drier air will rapidly fill in behind the front leading to
clearing skies and VFR conditions from north to south across the
area this afternoon. Breezy to windy NW winds will develop behind
the front, with speeds around 15-20 knots and gusts between 25-30
knots. Northerly winds diminish tonight to around 5-10 knots
across the interior, but will remain breezy along the immediate
coast, especially from KMLB southward up to around 13-15 knots
with gusts to 20-22 knots.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Increasing N/NW winds behind the passing cold front today, are
currently forecast to allow river levels along the St. Johns River
at Astor to rise to or just above Action Stage of 2.0 feet late
this week. River levels should then fall below Action Stage into
this weekend, as winds decrease and become onshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  53  71  51 /  70   0   0   0
MCO  80  55  75  53 /  60   0   0   0
MLB  80  56  74  56 /  40   0   0   0
VRB  83  57  75  55 /  40   0   0   0
LEE  78  54  76  52 /  70   0   0   0
SFB  80  54  75  53 /  70   0   0   0
ORL  80  56  76  55 /  60   0   0   0
FPR  82  55  75  54 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Friday for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Weitlich
LONG TERM....Fehling


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