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000
FXUS62 KMLB 111446
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1046 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Local satellite and radar imagery show scattered to numerous
showers with isolated strong to severe storms over northern
Florida to the northwest of Lake and Volusia counties. It`s
already breezy to windy with winds currently gusting to 30-40mph
from the south-southwest. The 10Z XMR sounding indicated CAPE
only at 500 J/kg and relatively low lapse rates, but 0-3km SRH at
386 m^2/s^2, and high bulk shear at 60 kts, as well as 40kt
southwesterly winds at 850mph. Hi-res guidance continues to
indicate increasing instability into the afternoon with MLCAPE
~800-1,600 J/kg, SCP at 4-10 N of Melbourne and 2-4 to the south,
in addition to STP at 2-4 N of Melbourne and 0-2 to the south. The
primary hazards associated with any strong to severe storms this
afternoon will be damaging wind gusts up to 60-70mph (15% chance
in the Slight Risk), frequent lightning strikes, and moderate to
heavy rainfall. Temperatures aloft are relatively warm at -7 to
-8C which suggests the hail threat is minimal today, however small
hail cannot be ruled. Additionally, a brief tornado is possible
(2-5%) in the areas outlooked for severe weather.

For this reason, areas along and north of I-4 have been outlooked
in a Slight Risk for severe weather today. Areas to the south of
I-4 to a line from Melbourne to northern Okeechobee County have
been highlighted in a Marginal Risk. The main line of showers and
strong to severe lightning storms moving east across east central
Florida is forecast from 1pm to 4PM north of I-4, 2-6pm between
I-4 and Melbourne, and from 5 to 9pm to the south of Melbourne and
northwest Okeechobee county. A Slight Risk for severe storms has
been outlooked over areas along and north of I-4. The threat for
severe storms will diminish into the evening hours as the front
moves across the Treasure Coast with upper level support and the
greatest instability remaining to the north. Rain chances will
dwindle this evening and into the overnight hours across the
Treasure Coast. High temperatures are forecast to reach the mid
80s to low 90s under cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 943 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Poor to hazardous conditions are forecast with MVFR/IFR ceilings
and wind gusts up to 35-40kts from the south-southwest this
afternoon. Strong to severe storms (mainly north of KVRB) with
TEMPO groups for TSRA exist this afternoon from 18-23Z. VFR
conditions are expected to return from KLEE to KSUA after 21-01Z.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Tonight...The front is forecast to reach the Treasure Coast by the
evening hours, with PoPs up to 30-40% persist through around
midnight. The front will be continuing to lose strength as it moves
southward, as the best dynamics pull away from the area, with just a
few lightning storms left by this time. Gusty winds will remain a
concern, as storms will be quick-moving at around 40-45kts, but the
overall severe threat looks to be low by this time. Behind the
front, dry conditions prevail, as northwesterly winds diminish to 5-
10mph by daybreak. Overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s,
though normally cooler spots in Lake and Volusia Counties could see
the mid-50s.

Friday-Sunday... An upper level trough over the Great Lakes region
on Friday will shift east and northward into the Northeast US by
Saturday, and moving out into the Atlantic off the Canadian coast by
Sunday. A dry post-frontal trough will move through the local area
Friday afternoon and into the evening. Surface high pressure will
build eastward over the Deep south on Saturday, shifting offshore
the Florida eastern coast on Sunday. Locally, winds will decrease
and veer west-northwest on Friday as the cold front across South
Florida continues to move southward, with winds veering onshore
briefly along the coast as the dry post-frontal trough pushes
through. Winds will then veer northeast on Saturday as the high
pressure builds in, with speeds around 10-15 mph and gusts of 20 to
25mph possible into the afternoon, before winds veer east to
southeast on Sunday as the high pressure shifts eastwards just off
the eastern Florida coast. Sunny skies and dry conditions will
prevail with temperatures on a slight warming trend through the
weekend. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s on
Friday, mid to upper 70s east of I-95 and mid 70s to low 80s west of
I-95 on Saturday, and upper 70s to low 80s east of I-95 and low to
mid 80s west of I-95 on Sunday.  Overnight lows will be in the low
to mid 50s Friday and Saturday night, and upper 50s to low 60s east
of I-95 and low to mid 50s west of I-95 on Sunday night.

Monday-Wednesday...Mid and upper level ridge will build across the
GOMEX and over Florida peninsula through mid week, all the while
shifting slightly eastward. Surface high pressure in the western
Atlantic waters will build westward over the Florida peninsula and
into the GOMEX and Deep South through midweek. Locally, winds will
be east to southeast at 10-15mph each afternoon with gusts up to 20
mph possible. Dry conditions will prevail through mid week, with no
mentionable rain chances through the period. Sunny skies will
continue to dominate with temperatures well above normal for this
time of year. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s east of
I-95 and mid to upper 80s west of I-95 each afternoon, with low 90s
possible in the far western interior on Wednesday. Overnight lows
will be in the mid to upper 50s to low 60s on Monday night, and low
to mid 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Today-Tonight...Hazardous boating conditions into tonight, due to
a strong cold front moving through the area this afternoon.
Southerly winds 20-25kts nearshore and up to 25-30kts offshore
today. Gusts to gale force are forecast offshore north of
Sebastian Inlet, with occasional gusts to gale-force for the
offshore Treasure Coast waters. Seas 6-8ft offshore and 4-6ft
nearshore through the daytime hours. Small Craft Advisories are in
effect for the nearshore zones, as well as the offshore waters
south of Sebastian Inlet through 8PM, with a Gale Warning in
effect for the offshore Brevard and Volusia County waters.

Will see winds veer southwesterly along the front, then
northwesterly tonight behind it. The pressure gradient will ease
after the frontal passage, with winds becoming 15-20kts by
daybreak. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore
waters from 8PM to 8AM.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will accompany the
frontal passage this afternoon, as it moves southward through the
local waters. A few storms could be strong to severe.

Friday- Monday... Poor boating conditions will be possible in the
offshore waters into the early weekend, with boating conditions
improving and becoming favorable into early week. Northwest winds 10-
15 KT on Friday will briefly increase to around 20 KT overnight
before winds become north to northeast on Saturday at 10-15 KT.
Winds will veer east to southeast on Sunday as surface high pressure
moves offshore the eastern Florida coast with winds remaining
southeast into early week. Seas will be 3-5ft on Friday, building up
to 6 ft in the offshore waters on Saturday before subsiding to 2-4ft
on Sunday, and 2-3ft on Monday. No rain chances through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  58  80  55 /  90   0   0   0
MCO  87  61  80  57 /  90   0   0   0
MLB  90  61  80  57 /  70  20   0   0
VRB  91  61  82  56 /  50  30   0   0
LEE  83  58  79  55 /  90   0   0   0
SFB  88  60  81  55 /  90   0   0   0
ORL  87  61  80  57 /  90   0   0   0
FPR  91  60  81  55 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tornado Watch until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ041-044-141-
     144.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ550-552-
     555.

     Tornado Watch until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ550.

     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fehling
LONG TERM...Sedlock
AVIATION...Fehling