Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 230914
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
514 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Today-Tonight...Looks like showers, and especially surface based
convection, will have an uphill battle for development. Drier air
filtering across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida is making
for an increasingly hostile environment, with GOES satellite imagery
showing PWATs around 1.3" across east central Florida (down from 1.4-
1.5" in yesterday`s TBW and XMR soundings), and less than 1" near
the approaching cold front. Showers and storms in the Gulf, which
the CAMs had generally depicted persisting towards central Florida,
have dissipated, which is indicative of how hi-res models have
struggled in this event. In addition, developing stratus is forecast
to persist through the late morning, delaying and possibly limiting
daytime heating, reducing energy available for showers and storms.
All that said, the mid-upper level troughing remains in a favorable
position, over to just west of Florida, for large scale ascent.
Shear is substantial with bulk shear (sfc-6km/8km) at 60-70 kts,
plus a backed profile early this morning near the coast before
southerly surface winds veer to westerly, and 500mb temperatures
cooling from around -12 C to -15 C. Therefore, there is a
conditional threat for stronger storms capable of gusty winds and
hail, if that deep convection can manage to develop.

As for the rest of the forecast, westerly winds 10-15 mph could get
a little gusty, but at least during the day much more moderate than
yesterday. Gustier and possibly breezy conditions expected overnight
as the front passes through, with the Volusia and northern Brevard
coastal corridor, especially the barrier islands, becoming windy.
Daytime highs pushing towards around 80, but depending on cloud
cover some spots may get stuck in the U70s. Overnight lows cooling
off to the U50-L60s.

Sun...Departing sfc low and upper trough will allow high pressure
ridge to build into the area. A tightening northerly pressure
gradient will produce windy conditions esp along the coast,
gusting 30-35 mph. Cyclonic low level flow will produce
considerable clouds esp along the coast and support isolated
showers/sprinkles pushing onshore obliquely from the N/NE.
Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with maxes holding in the
upper 60s along the VOlusia and north Brevard coasts...and low to
mid 70s elsewhere. Overnight lows Sunday night will be in the mid
to upper 50s across the interior and low to mid 60s along the
coast south of the Cape.

Mon-Fri...Surface high pressure ridge axis over the region will
push eastward out into the Atlantic on Monday. A weakening cold
front will approach the local area mid week while slowing its
forward progress. Low pressure is forecast to develop along the
boundary near the SE US coast and swing the trailing front across
the area Thu. Dry conditions will dominate Mon-Tue with rain
chances returning Wed aftn across the north and scattered PoPs
(30-40 percent) areawide Thu with frontal passage. Breezy N/NW
winds Fri behind the front will bring cooler and drier conds.

Temperatures will reach the mid 70s along the coast and near 80
across the far interior on Monday, then warming into the mid 80s
interior Tue-Wed, lower 80s coast. Not quite as warm Thu due to
clouds/precip then slightly cooler Fri with lower 70s Volusia
coast and mid to upper 70s elsewhere. Coolest low temperatures
will be Fri morning dipping into the low to mid 50s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Today-Tonight...Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue across
the local Atlantic waters. While conditions will improve this
morning, they are expected to rapidly deteriorate tonight as a cold
front pushes through the waters. Winds veer from S-SE early this
morning to W-WNW by the afternoon, with a tight speed gradient
between the Volusia coast (5-10 kts increasing) and well offshore
the Treasure Coast (20-25 kts). Winds ease to around 10 kts by
sunset, then quickly increase to 20-30 kts (highest in the Volusia
waters) from the north late tonight behind behind the front. Seas 5-
8 ft this morning settle to 3-6 ft late this evening, then jump back
up to 7-9 ft in the Gulf Stream off Volusia and Brevard, and will
continue to build. Rounds of showers and lightning storms will be
possible, especially over the Gulf Stream. This morning`s Small
Craft Advisories expire at 5 AM, 8 AM, and 4 PM, with new SCAs for
all central Florida Atlantic waters going in effect at 11 PM. Small
craft should exercise caution between advisories.

Sun-Wed...Hazardous boating conditions for a prolonged period.
North winds Sun 20-25 knots will build seas rapidly 9-11 ft in the
Gulf Stream and 6-8 ft nearshore. Thus a new Small Craft Advisory
has been issued. High pressure ridge axis will shift east across
the waters Sun night and Mon veering winds out of the East. A
slackening of the pressure gradient will allow winds speeds to
decrease 12-16 knots but seas will be slow to subside so The
Advisory will remain in effect thru Mon. Winds veer SE Tue and
S/SE Wed as a weak front approaches from the northwest. Winds
speeds will decrease near 10 knots Wed so the wind chop will
subside. However, a large long period NE swell will be the
primary contribution to wave heights Tue-Wed. Importantly for
small craft, these swells will produce hazardous conditions near
inlets esp during the outgoing tide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

MVFR CIGs quickly developing along and north of the I-4 corridor
early this morning are expected to expand south, impacting most if
not all ECFL terminals through the late morning, and can`t rule out
brief reductions to IFR. CIGs then lift/break, with mainly VFR
conditions from around noon through the first half of tonight. Srly
winds 5-10 kts veer to Wrly around 10 kts and occasionally gusty in
the afternoon. SHRA/TSRA remain possible through 17Z, but not enough
confidence in timing/location for TEMPOs, so continue VC mention.
MVFR CIGs forecast again after midnight. Winds veer NNE-N overnight
and increase to 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts towards Sunday
morning, possibly higher at DAB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  59  69  57 /  40  30  10   0
MCO  80  60  72  58 /  40  20   0   0
MLB  79  62  71  62 /  50  20  20   0
VRB  81  61  74  61 /  50  20  10   0
LEE  79  58  72  54 /  40  20   0   0
SFB  80  59  72  56 /  40  20   0   0
ORL  80  60  72  57 /  40  20   0   0
FPR  80  59  74  61 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT
     Monday for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

 Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ570-
     572-575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haley
LONG TERM....Kelly
AVIATION...Haley


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