102
FNUS73 KMPX 011302
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Afton Rx...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
802 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...For the Afton Rx Burn, today will be mostly cloudy
with temperatures in the mid 60s. Winds will be out of the west
and breezy at times with gusts to around 25-30 MPH through early
this afternoon before diminishing after 3pm and turning more
northwesterly. RH values will be around 40%.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Temperature.........55 at ignition...Max 64.
RH..................66 percent at ignition...Min 40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 16 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 12 to 17 mph with gusts to around 28
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /78300 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /102000 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 29 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............55  57  59  61  62  63  63  62  62  59  57  55
RH..............66  59  55  49  46  44  44  46  48  57  59  64
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   NE  E
20 FT wind spd..16  17  16  15  14  13  12  9   9   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.28  28  26  24  23  22  20  16  12  9   8   6
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 3.7 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.0 2.7 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  N   N   N   NE  E
Transp wind spd.29  29  28  25  22  22  20  15  10  6   6   6
Haines index....4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers overnight. Chance of rain showers
                    early in the morning.
Temperature.........Min 48.
RH..................Max 86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 9 mph shifting to the east
                    5 to 6 mph late in the evening, then increasing
                    to 6 to 9 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (34700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 15 mph shifting to the east 6 to 13
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers through
                    the day. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 55.
RH..................Min 77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 9 to 17 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (32500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 14 to 23 mph increasing to 18 to 24 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dye
Requested by...Nathan Renk
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412899.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Nate.Renk@state.mn.us