Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1205 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024


...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook for the Upper
Mississippi, Minnesota, and Chippewa (WI) River Basins...

...There is a Below Normal Probability of Spring Flooding Throughout
the Area...


In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical/normal (HS)
probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period. When the value of CS is
greater than that of HS, the probability of exceeding that level is
higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than that of HS,
the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    Valid  Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATERGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:West Branch Lac Qui Parle River
Dawson              39.0   40.0   42.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Redwood River
Redwood Falls        6.0   15.0   16.0 :  13   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cottonwood River
Springfield         22.0   27.0   32.0 :  20   38    6   18   <5   <5
New Ulm             11.0   13.0   16.0 :  15   31    6   18   <5    9
:Minnesota River
Montevideo          14.0   16.0   17.5 :  19   30   <5   19   <5    8
Granite Falls      885.0  889.0  892.0 :   6   21   <5    7   <5   <5
Morton              21.0   23.0   26.0 :  19   33    7   22   <5    7
New Ulm            800.0  804.0  806.0 :   6   18   <5    8   <5    6
Mankato             22.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5   13   <5    7   <5   <5
Henderson          732.0  736.0  739.5 :  <5   18   <5    8   <5   <5
Jordan              25.0   28.0   34.0 :  10   27   <5   16   <5   <5
Savage             702.0  710.0  712.0 :  32   62   <5   13   <5   10
:Long Prairie River
Long Prairie         7.0    8.0   10.0 :   5   17   <5    6   <5   <5
:Sauk River
St Cloud             6.0    7.0    9.0 :  <5    9   <5    5   <5   <5
:South Fork Crow River
Mayer               11.0   15.0   16.0 :  17   27   <5   12   <5    8
Delano              16.5   17.5   18.5 :  10   20    6   16   <5   11
:Crow River
Rockford            10.0   12.0   14.0 :  10   22    5   13   <5    8
:Mississippi River
St Cloud             9.0   10.0   11.0 :   9   32   <5   15   <5   <5
Hwy 169 Champlin    12.0   14.0   17.0 :   7   21    5    8   <5   <5
:Rum River
Milaca               6.0    7.0    8.0 :   7    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
St Francis           8.0   10.0   11.0 :   9   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Snake River
Mora                11.0   13.0   14.0 :  13   26   <5    9   <5   <5
:Mississippi River
Fridley             16.0   16.5   17.0 :  <5    8   <5    7   <5    6
St Paul             14.0   15.0   17.0 :   6   23    5   19   <5   12
Hastings L/D#2      15.0   17.0   18.0 :  14   40    5   19   <5   13
Red Wing L/D#3     680.5  681.5  683.0 :   7   25   <5   17   <5    8
Red Wing            14.0   15.0   16.0 :   5   20   <5   14   <5   10
:Cannon River
Northfield         897.0  899.0  900.0 :  <5   17   <5    5   <5   <5
:St Croix River
Stillwater          87.0   88.0   89.0 :   8   24    5   19   <5   12
:Eau Claire River
Fall Creek          11.0   14.0   17.0 :   8   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Chippewa River
Eau Claire         773.0  776.0  778.0 :  <5   15   <5    7   <5   <5
Durand              13.0   15.5   17.0 :  12   42   <5   12   <5   <5


LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION (NORMAL)
FT = FEET

In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          Valid  Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:West Branch Lac Qui Parle River
Dawson               32.5   33.2   33.6   34.2   35.3   37.5   38.1
:Redwood River
Redwood Falls         2.3    2.6    2.9    3.6    4.8    6.9    8.9
:Cottonwood River
Springfield          14.8   15.3   16.1   18.2   21.3   25.7   28.8
New Ulm               5.3    5.8    6.5    7.8    9.6   12.3   14.4
:Minnesota River
Montevideo            6.8    7.1    9.9   11.3   13.4   14.9   15.6
Granite Falls       881.5  881.6  882.5  883.0  883.6  884.5  885.1
Morton               12.5   13.0   16.1   18.5   20.4   22.2   23.7
New Ulm             788.2  788.7  791.2  793.1  795.0  797.7  800.5
Mankato               6.4    6.9    8.0   11.1   14.8   17.3   19.5
Henderson           718.6  719.9  721.5  724.6  727.6  729.9  731.6
Jordan                9.8   11.2   13.1   17.3   22.4   24.8   26.4
Savage              688.9  691.3  693.7  699.4  703.2  706.9  708.6
:Long Prairie River
Long Prairie          2.8    3.1    4.1    4.9    6.0    6.8    7.1
:Sauk River
St Cloud              2.5    2.6    2.9    3.5    4.4    4.9    5.6
:South Fork Crow River
Mayer                 4.5    5.3    6.3    8.0   10.4   12.2   14.5
Delano                8.9    9.8   11.0   12.9   14.9   16.5   18.2
:Crow River
Rockford              4.3    4.6    5.3    6.8    8.3   10.1   12.0
:Mississippi River
St Cloud              5.8    5.9    6.4    7.0    7.8    8.8    9.6
Hwy 169 Champlin      5.2    5.4    6.0    6.8    8.4   10.1   14.0
:Rum River
Milaca                2.4    2.6    3.0    3.7    4.4    5.4    6.4
St Francis            3.5    4.0    4.8    5.6    6.5    7.5    8.7
:Snake River
Mora                  3.6    5.0    5.6    7.2    9.2   11.3   12.7
:Mississippi River
Fridley               6.0    6.6    7.6    8.8   10.9   12.7   15.9
St Paul               3.2    4.0    4.9    7.3   10.0   12.4   15.6
Hastings L/D#2        6.0    6.7    7.7   10.4   13.2   15.3   17.1
Red Wing L/D#3      670.3  671.2  673.2  675.8  677.9  679.8  681.4
Red Wing              4.4    5.0    6.1    8.0   10.1   12.2   14.1
:Cannon River
Northfield          891.5  891.6  892.7  893.5  894.6  896.1  896.8
:St Croix River
Stillwater           76.3   77.0   78.8   81.2   83.9   86.2   88.1
:Eau Claire River
Fall Creek            3.8    4.7    5.4    6.7    8.1    9.4   12.5
:Chippewa River
Eau Claire          761.5  762.9  763.5  764.7  766.5  769.6  770.6
Durand                5.8    7.1    7.8    9.3   10.7   13.6   14.0

In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns
indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels
(FT) for the valid time period.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          Valid  Period: 03/04/2024 - 06/02/2024
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:West Branch Lac Qui Parle River
Dawson               32.7   32.5   32.4   32.3   32.2   32.0   31.9
:Redwood River
Redwood Falls         2.1    2.0    1.8    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.5
:Cottonwood River
Springfield          13.2   13.0   12.7   12.5   12.3   12.1   12.0
New Ulm               4.0    3.9    3.7    3.5    3.3    3.2    3.1
:Minnesota River
Montevideo            5.3    4.9    4.5    4.0    3.5    3.1    2.9
Granite Falls       880.9  880.7  880.5  880.4  880.1  880.0  879.8
Morton               11.1   10.7   10.0    9.6    9.0    8.5    8.3
New Ulm             787.5  787.2  786.7  786.5  786.0  785.5  785.4
Mankato               4.7    4.6    4.1    3.8    3.5    3.2    3.1
Henderson           715.8  715.3  714.4  713.9  713.1  712.7  712.5
Jordan                7.3    6.7    5.9    5.5    4.8    4.5    4.4
Savage              688.1  687.9  687.7  687.5  687.4  687.4  687.4
:Long Prairie River
Long Prairie          2.5    2.2    2.0    1.8    1.7    1.5    1.4
:Sauk River
St Cloud              2.5    2.1    1.9    1.8    1.6    1.5    1.4
:South Fork Crow River
Mayer                 3.9    3.6    2.9    2.6    2.2    1.7    1.5
Delano                8.4    8.0    7.2    6.9    6.4    5.8    5.5
:Crow River
Rockford              4.3    3.8    3.5    3.2    2.9    2.6    2.5
:Mississippi River
St Cloud              5.3    5.2    5.1    4.8    4.5    4.3    4.1
Hwy 169 Champlin      4.9    4.8    4.7    4.6    4.4    4.3    4.2
:Rum River
Milaca                2.0    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8
St Francis            3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.7    2.6
:Snake River
Mora                  1.7    1.6    1.4    1.3    1.3    1.1    1.0
:Mississippi River
Fridley               5.7    5.5    5.3    5.0    4.7    4.4    4.1
St Paul               3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
Hastings L/D#2        5.7    5.5    5.3    5.0    4.8    4.6    4.5
Red Wing L/D#3      669.3  669.1  668.6  668.4  668.2  667.8  667.7
Red Wing              3.9    3.7    3.3    3.0    2.7    2.2    1.9
:Cannon River
Northfield          890.6  890.4  890.2  890.1  890.0  889.9  889.8
:St Croix River
Stillwater           75.5   75.5   75.4   75.4   75.3   75.2   75.2
:Eau Claire River
Fall Creek            1.8    1.6    1.3    1.1    1.0    0.9    0.8
:Chippewa River
Eau Claire          759.4  759.3  759.1  758.9  758.8  758.7  758.7
Durand                3.2    3.0    2.6    2.3    2.0    1.9    1.7

For the winter of 2023-24, we have seen a record low amount of
snowfall across the entire upper Midwest. This has resulted in a
below normal probability of spring flooding, due to little if any
snow water equivalent to drive the snowmelt flood season. Soil
moisture remains a little below normal from last year`s dry summer,
though the rare December rainfall did help a bit. There is ample
storage available in the deeper soils, as well as in lakes, ponds,
and wetlands as we head into spring.

Flooding will still be possible if we receive well above normal
rainfall or late season snow, but the starting point is lower than
normal. Drought conditions continue across the region, and could
become more severe without significant rainfall this spring.


These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data, along with current conditions of the river
levels, soil moisture, and snow cover, combined with 30 to 90 day
long range outlooks.

This information is available online in graphical format, at:

https://www.weather.gov/twincities and at
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?who=mpx

Beginning on March 27th, National Weather Service water recources
information will have a new home, the National Water Prediction
Service (NWPS). Starting that day, check us out at
https://water.noaa.gov !

These outlooks are issues bi-weekly through mid March

$$
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