286
FXUS64 KOHX 032321
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
621 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

There are just so many ways one can state that an unsettled
weather pattern will persist through this entire forecast period.
Looking at the short term part, maybe some breaks in potential
rounds of showers and storms, earlier this afternoon and across
locations around and west of I-65 corridor on Saturday afternoon.
Yes, a few strong storms may be possible at times, but really not
expecting any organized severe storm potential. Lows tonight will be
seasonably mild in low to mid 60s. Highs on Saturday will also be
above seasonal normal values ranging upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s
higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Looking into a little bit more detail here, mid state will remain
in the warm sector of synoptic surface frontal systems to our west
and north with prevalence of southwesterly flow aloft and
potentially more upper level disturbance passages than one can
count embedded within this flow aiding in these rounds of convective
developments. Just like in the short term, some strong storms may be
possible at times, but all in all, really not expecting any
organized severe storm potential at this time. The only exception to
this is the hinting by SPC in its latest Day Five Outlook of strong
convection being possible near Land of the Lakes Region on Tuesday.
Temperatures will continue to be seasonably warm. As for all these
rounds of showers and storms expected, total rainfall amounts this
afternoon through Friday afternoon are expected to generally range
2.5" to 3.5."

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across Middle TN.
The threat will mainly be just to the south and east of Nashville
through 03z. IFR/LIFR conditions in any thunderstorms with heavy
rain, low vis, and low cigs. Things dry out after 03z and there is
a slight chance for light showers overnight. Scattered activity
will develop again tomorrow after 16z but should be less
widespread than today. Light southerly winds under 6 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  82  65  85 /  40  70  50  70
Clarksville    64  80  65  82 /  40  50  40  70
Crossville     61  74  60  78 /  60  80  50  80
Columbia       64  80  63  84 /  60  70  50  80
Cookeville     63  76  62  80 /  60  80  50  80
Jamestown      61  76  60  80 /  60  80  50  80
Lawrenceburg   64  79  63  82 /  60  70  50  80
Murfreesboro   64  79  63  84 /  50  70  50  80
Waverly        64  80  64  83 /  50  50  50  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Mueller