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000
FXUS63 KPAH 172327
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

UPDATED FOR AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MID LVL SHORT WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH MO WILL CONTINUE TO
SPAWN SCAT TO NUMEROUS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE WAVE FORMS OVER AR AND DRIFTS EAST INTO
TN. THIS SHORT WAVE AND SFC FEATURE WILL BE QUITE SLOW TO MOVE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY ACTUALLY
PROPAGATE FROM SE TO NW OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS AT TIMES. AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE GREATEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD SHRINK TO
OUR S/SE AREAS...CLOSEST TO THE SFC BOUNDARY.

ANOTHER MID LVL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SE TOWARD THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE SHOULD BE MUCH MORE MOISTURE STARVED
WITH LITTLE OR NO LOW LEVEL FORCING /SFC BOUNDARY/. THUS...NOT
EXPECTING NEAR THE COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY THAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ESTABLISHED
BY THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON A GENERALLY RAINFREE...YET
WARMING TIME PERIOD.

MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK WILL EVENTUALLY MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SAT. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO A
RAINFREE PERIOD RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS CLOSER TO US...ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND...WE WILL UNDERGO A
NOTICEABLE RETURN TO HEAT AND HUMIDITY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 90S NEXT WEEKEND...WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY TOPPING OUT NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

PLENTY OF LINGERING CONVECTION OUT THERE EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE KCGI/KEVV/KOWB TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON HOW LONG THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT GIVEN CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND LOSS OF DAYLIGHT HERE IN
A FEW HOURS...WOULD BELIEVE THE STORMS WILL DIE OFF WITHIN THE
NEXT 2-3 HRS. MODELS PASS A SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH LATER THIS
EVENING...AND THIS COULD SPARK SOME ACTIVITY THAT COULD IMPACT
KPAH...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE GOING TOO OUT ON A LIMB BEYOND ABOUT 03Z. THE
ATMOSPHERE TENDS TO DRY OUT WITH TIME DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS
ON TUESDAY...SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. CONCERNED WITH FOG
AFTER ALL THIS RAIN...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE MAY
BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FORMATION. WILL ASSESS IN GREATER DETAIL WITH
THE 06Z TAFS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$