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000
FXUS63 KPAH 171817
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
117 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low-Mid 80s continues another day (Thursday).

- A potentially big severe weather event looks increasingly
  possible Thursday afternoon-evening into Thursday night.
  Damaging winds is the main hazard, but large hail and tornadoes
  are also within the envelope of anticipated hazards.

- Turning seasonally cooler Friday through the weekend, as
  highs/lows in the 80s/60s transition to 60s/40s. Some upper
  30s are possible both weekend nights, and if skies clear/winds
  diminish, some frost potential exists then.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Our next thunderstorm chance looks like a good one. A fast
moving/developing low pressure storm system will return a warm
front across the region by early tmrw pm, to be followed by its
cold front`s approach and passage. This will all occur right
at/with peak heating, and both Mixed and Most Unstable CAPEs
respond accordingly, bubbling upward to 2000+ J/KG. 100-200 kts
helicity is modeled coincident with this in the lower 1KM by
00Z. All of the CAMs show a bowing convective line moving across
the heart of the FA in the 21-03Z time frame, and some suggest
potential warm sector cells (albeit more isolated) may occur as
early as 18-21Z. We think the main show will be the latter, with
damaging winds potentially a widespread event...so there is now
an enhanced risk over virtually the entire FA for 30% wind,
5-15% hail, and 2-5% isolated tors. Unlike last system, the cap
should be eroded and mid level lapse rates will be increasing
to 7-8 C/KM (versus decreasing last time). With sharp
convergence offered by the incoming front, these should all
promote better severe storm chances this time.

The front makes complete passage overnight, and then draws in
much cooler and ultimately drier air for the week`s end. We`ll
transition from our recent run of 80s/60s for highs/lows, to
60s/40s that will extend into early next week. If skies clear
and winds diminish, some weekend lows in the upper 30s with a
chance for frost may be offered on the forecast table as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Gusty southwesterlies will diminish tonight with skies nearly
clearing, maybe just a few high clouds, for the bulk of the
night. Late night-early tmrw morning, warm advection kicks in
again, and restricted base clouds come with it. Expect SCT-BKN
MVFR bases to introduce at KCGI/KPAH around daybreak, spreading
east toward the other terminals but also slowly lifting toward
VFR thru the remainder of the planning phase hours of the
forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$