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000
FXUS63 KPAH 170309
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1009 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

UPDATED THE PUBLIC FORECAST TO REMOVE MOST OF THE POP FROM THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID LEAVE A SMALL RAMP UP TO 20-30 POPS OVER
MAINLY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. GIVEN THIS EVENINGS
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND HI-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT...WOULD BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ANY MCS REACH THE AREA BEFORE MIDDAY MONDAY...WHEN
DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO BE A CONCERN. LEFT THE 50-60 POPS
FOR MONDAY...BUT DID PUSH THEM BACK TIL AFTER 15Z.

GIVEN THAT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS ARE LINGERING OVER THE
AREA...DECIDED TO INCREASE LOWS A CATEGORY OR SO IN SOME
LOCATIONS. AND WITH SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS OF 03Z...SOME AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ADDED PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG BASED ON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FORECAST TO MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE PORTIONS OF THE PENNYRILE AND
EVANSVILLE TRI STATE THAT GOT SOME DECENT RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL NOT MENTION DENSE AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL ADVISE THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MODELS HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THAT CONVECTION JUST NOW
INTO SRN IL/SW IN/AND SE MO WOULD BE DECREASING WITH TIME.
GENERALLY WILL STICK WITH LOWER POPS GIVEN THERE IS NO SPECTACULAR
SIGNALS SUGGESTING OTHERWISE THROUGH TONIGHT. IN FACT...NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...THE SREF AND NAM SUGGEST CHANCES LOWER FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS WELL...SAVE FOR MAYBE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SEMO INTO WRN KY. PLAN ON LOWERING POPS BUT MAINTAINING
LIKELY POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. CHANCES WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER FORECAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. USED A BLEND OF SREF BIAS CORRECTED/NAM-GFS MOS AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE CORE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE MID WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LESSENS SOMEWHAT GIVEN THE RATHER INCONSISTENT
FORECAST OF SPORADIC CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEPICTED BY SOME MODELS...
THE GFS AND GEM IN PARTICULAR. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT IN ITS DRY SIGNAL THROUGH LATE WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY...WHILE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
WARMING TREND LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ABOVE THE 90 DEGREE
MARK ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY...THIS MAY RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

EXCEPT FOR VERY ISOLD AREAS UNDER A SHOWER/TSTM...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT
WINDS. OVERNIGHT...DUE TO INCREASED RH AND CALM OR NEAR CALM
WINDS...SOME IFR FOG IS NOW FORECAST AT MOST TERMINALS TOWARD
SUNRISE. A GENTLE SERLY/SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KICK IN AFTER
THAT...AND THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION AROUND AS ANOTHER IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER THERE IS NOT A CLEAR ENOUGH SIGNAL IN THE
MODELS TO INCLUDE IN THE 00Z TAFS. THIS MAY CHANGE FOR THE NEXT
PACKAGE.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DB