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000
FXUS63 KPAH 222351
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
651 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

H5 LOW OVER NRN IOWA WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF WEAK
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...EARLY IN THE DAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A DECENT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MODELS STILL DIFFER FOR THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WORK WEEK WEATHER
SYSTEM. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST AT 00Z SUNDAY...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. GFS HAS THE PLAINS LOW FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE GFS...THUS KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER NORTH AND OUT OF THE
THE PAH FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED. ECMWF SHOWS ON
AND OFF CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW REMAINING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS.
GEM SEEMS TO BE A GOOD BLEND OF THE TWO...AND HAS BEEN TRENDING A
BIT MORE TOWARD THE FARTHER SOUTH ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GEM
COMPROMISE...WHICH LEADS TO INCLUDING SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT
DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION. ECMWF TRIES TO
CONTINUE TO HANG ON TO THE PRECIP EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST U.S...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN MODERATING TO NEAR
SEASONAL ON SUNDAY. A RETURN TO MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WILL LEAD TOA GRADUAL WARM UP AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

ONE ISOLATED SHOWER WILL FLIRT WITH KEVV IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
UNTIL SUNSET. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LATEST COMPUTER
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE FINAL MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SURGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM MID-
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KEVV AND KOWB DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT CERTAIN ON COVERAGE OR
INTENSITY...SO JUST INSERTED A VCSH BOTH SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

CANNOT RULE OUT A MVFR CEILING AT KEVV/KOWB IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
DEFINITELY SHOULD SEE LOW VFR CEILINGS...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AND
WEST AS KCGI AND KPAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS