Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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639 FXUS63 KPAH 031751 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1251 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue over Quad State, gradually shifting east by midday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly over the southeast half of the region this afternoon. Additional rainfall should generally be a half inch or less. - Very warm temperatures continue will continue through next week. - Scattered showers and storms Saturday through Monday lead into a potentially active period Monday night through Thursday, where some potential will exist for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Weak southwest flow aloft and a rather flat surface pattern will be the rule through Monday. A disturbance will slowly push east of the region today, taking the scattered to numerous showers with it. Most of the activity will be east of the region by 18Z, but showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible mainly over the southeast half of the region this afternoon and evening. As we head through Saturday, a northern stream trough will push eastward through the upper Mississippi Valley. There has been a persistent signal in the guidance for a broken line of storms to develop along the associated cold front as it moves eastward through Missouri. A few storms could reach southeast Missouri or southern Illinois around sunset. They will be weakening as the attempt to move through the Quad State Saturday night. There could be some moderate instability for storms to work with in the heat of the day Saturday, but convective initiation may be difficult to get. The best chance for afternoon development will be in southern and western portions of the region. Some gusty winds, lightning and isolated heavy rainfall will be possible with any storms Saturday afternoon and evening. Another weak disturbance will lift northeast through the Quad State Sunday night into Monday morning, and then a larger-scale upper trough will quickly lift northeast from the Rockies toward the northern Plains Monday night. The combination of these two features will likely lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Quad State from Sunday afternoon through Monday and possibly into Monday night. The convection would arrive in southeast Missouri Sunday afternoon and then overspread the remainder of the area Sunday night. Some decent instability should be able to develop ahead of the convection, so the storms on the leading edge of the rain shield may have some potential to produce gusty winds as the activity spreads eastward across the region in the afternoon and evening. Wind shear will be weak which should prevent more significant storm organization and severe storm potential. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the larger trough Monday night. The wind shear will increase significantly, but it is uncertain if we will be able to develop any instability behind Monday`s convection. If we do heat up over southeast Missouri Monday afternoon, a few severe storms will be possible Monday night. For Tuesday we will be in a healthy west southwest flow aloft as an elongated upper trough develops from southeast Canada southwest through the Rockies. This increased flow aloft will allow for much stronger southerly flow in the low-levels across the Quad State Tuesday and Wednesday. Gusts up to 30 mph are a good bet, and we may need to issue a Lake Wind Advisory both days. There is a decent signal in the latest guidance for multiple rounds of convection to develop as minor disturbances move through the region from Tuesday through Thursday. Given the west southwest flow aloft, a decent cap should be in place and allow for significant instability to develop each day, depending on remnant cloud cover from the previous day`s activity. With strong wind fields expected, each round of convection could pose a severe threat, and with each round, the heavy rainfall and flooding threat would increase. By Friday the upper trough is expected to pivot eastward and bring an end to the onslaught, but we could end up in the dreaded dirty northwest flow heading into Mother`s Day weekend. Until this upper trough can push a substantial cold front through the region, allowing surface high pressure to build in, temperatures will remain well above normal. Of course, the daily chances of convection should help to mitigate the impact of the prolonged warm weather. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 MVFR cigs will improve this afternoon at most sites. Isolated to scattered SHRA expected this afternoon with CIG and Visb restrictions possible near any of this activity. TSRA appear possible but confidence is too low to mention in the TAFs. Winds relax overnight with a very moist boundary layer leading to fog development. IFR is forecast for all sites by morning. Fog will scatter out shortly after sunrise with VFR expected the rest of Saturday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...AD