Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 242321
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
621 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heightened fire danger continues this afternoon due to low
  humidity and breezy winds.

- Wind conditions really ramp up late tonight through Monday as
  a storm system approaches from the west. South winds 20 to 30
  mph may gust upwards to 50 mph at times. A Wind Advisory has
  been issued.

- Thunderstorms are forecast as a cold front approaches (Monday)
  and makes passage (Monday night through Tuesday). Heavy rain
  and lightning are primary hazards Monday night, with gusty
  winds and hail potential from mid morning to early afternoon
  Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Expect our developing Plains storm system to take shape and lift out
tonight. With it to the west, and high pressure anchored now to our
east, the gradient between will be tightening and winds will really
be picking up with time. A consistent daily signal supports headline
winds/gusts, with the mean falling in the 40-50 mph gust potential
range. As a result, we`ll be issuing a Wind Advisory for our entire
region. If the NBM and selected high end deterministic output is
right, that may eventually need upgraded to a warning.

A prefrontal line of convection will develop and move in from the
west tmrw night, as the cold front approaches. Night-time passage,
retarded surface dew point return (low 50s maxed), and resultant
minimal 0-1KM CAPE hinders strong storm potential here, despite
overall increasing speed shear and dynamical energy; shunting it
instead to the north with the low, and to the south where richer
moisture/instability resides. The main impact for us (outside the
gradient winds) will be heavy rainfall, as the E-SATs are
sufficiently robust with 1-1.25" PW`s in the 90th percentile
supporting WPC`s MRGNL risk for excessive rainfall. 1-1.5" average
qpf may over-achieve where some thunder can locally enhance, and
that`s where minor low land and flood prone areal water issues might
develop.

What began as an interesting trend yesterday has become more
consistent with the overnight and now this morning model runs...and
that`s the more robust development of instability during the daytime
Tuesday that may promote the development of a 2ndary line of
convection. The models have upwards to 800 Joules of 0-1KM MUCAPE to
work with as the actual front makes its pass across our eastern half
FA, from about mid morning to early afternoon, just as we`re heating
up. The NBM continues to depict this nicely with likely pops and we
see SPC has responded with a marginal risk of wind/hail
severe...which we support. The convective chances effectively end
west to east across the area with the cold front`s passage later
Tuesday afternoon and evening and the mean long wave trof marks its
passage thereafter. Drawn in behind the departing system is a cooler
air mass for the mid week, then it too shifts east, allowing for a
mild warmup to ensue by week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Visible satellite imagery shows high clouds beginning to build
in from the west as the next storm system approaches. These
clouds will thicken overnight, but leaning towards cigs
remaining VFR as it will take some time for the column to
saturate given ample dry air. Southerly winds will be on the
increase overnight as the pressure gradient tightens. Sustained
winds between 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts are possible.

Moisture will be on the increase Monday as low pressure begins
to approach the region. Cigs are progged to become MVFR by
17-21z across western terminals as VCSH coverage begins to move
in. Terminals KEVV & KOWB look to remain VFR with cigs lowering
to around 5 kft AGL midday. By 22-23z, high-resolution model
guidance shows -RA entering western terminals. There is still
some uncertainty in the timing of a squall line, but any +RA and
MVFR/IFR vsbys look to hold off until near the end or shortly
after the TAF period. Southerly sustained winds around 20-25 kts
with gusts 35-40 kts will become more likely through the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM CDT Tuesday for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Wind Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Wind Advisory from 5 AM CDT /6 AM EDT/ Monday to 5 AM CDT /6
     AM EDT/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Wind Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 AM CDT Tuesday for
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DW


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