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000
FXUS63 KPAH 120446 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1146 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

88D MOSAIC SHOWS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD SEE BRIEF 2-3 HOUR
PERIOD WHERE WE HAVE A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY A
SHOWER OR STORM. WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL FUEL/DEPARTURE OF FRONT BY
MID EVENING...CHANCES DROP OFF MARKEDLY AND SKIES CLEAR POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

COOLER AIR WORKS IN THEREAFTER WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TOMORROW
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS TN VALLEY. HOWEVER SOME CLOUDS
RETURNING AROUND BACK SIDE OF HIGH MAY NEGATE FROST POTENTIAL IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT/LOW TEMP AREAS WEST OF MS RIVER. FURTHER
NORTH/EAST...TEMPS AND SKY ARE MORE FAVORABLE...BUT DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 5-8F MAY PRECLUDE ITS FORMATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PATCHY MENTION AND TRIM BACK TO JUST EAST OF MS RIVER AND KEEP A
CLOSE EYE UPON ITS MODEL PROGRESSION NEXT COUPLE RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY
WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED ALONG THE MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO SYSTEM TIMING. THE LATEST
GEM OFFERS THE FASTEST SOLUTION...WITH THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. PREFER
TO STICK WITH AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR NOW...WHICH MOST CLOSELY
RESEMBLES THE TIMING OF THE GFS.

EVEN WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE WEAK TROUGH ON FRIDAY...THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE ABSENCE OF A CAP...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY
WINDS AOB 10 KTS EARLY WILL GUST UP TO 15-18 KTS BETWEEN 15-01Z...
THEN DIMINISH TO VARIABLE AOB 5 KTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
PUBLIC...SMITH