Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 130456
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1156 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend continues through Thursday, with a cooling
  trend Friday on through the weekend into early next week.

- Brief chance for a few showers tonight into Wednesday
  morning.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Wednesday night
  into Thursday, then numerous showers and scattered
  thunderstorms expected Thursday night through Friday
  afternoon, with marginal severe threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Models continue to show a weak upper level wave moving over the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys late tonight into
Wednesday morning. Models have trended southward with the
potential of isolated to scattered showers late this evening
into Wednesday night. Slight chances PoPs have been extended to
all but the southern 1 or 2 rows of the PAH forecast area for
late tonight, with lows chance PoPs for our northern counties.
Between 13z-18z, went with slight to low chance PoPs across
mainly southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and the Pennyrile
region of west Kentucky. After 18z, continued slight chance PoPs
for all but our far north and west. Rainfall amounts will
generally be around a tenth of an inch or less.

South winds across our region will continue the warming trend
through Thursday. Temperatures tonight will be 12 to 15 degrees
above normal, and Wednesday through Thursday 15 to around 20
degrees above normal.

By late Wednesday into Wednesday night, models show a surface
low over Kansas, with a warm front extending through central
Missouri into southern Indiana. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected across southern Illinois, southwest
Indiana and and a small portion of southeast Missouri Wednesday
evening in the vicinity of the warm front. As the surface low
and associated cold front move slowly east, convection will
spread across the rest of the PAH forecast area by early Thursday
morning. Scattered showers and storms are expected through the
day, becoming more numerous Thursday evening and overnight as
the front moves through our region. It will become breezy
Thursday ahead of the front, with south winds at 15-20 kts and
gusts around 25 kts. As for the severe threat, parameters
have improved since yesterday, with the latest model runs
showing MUCAPE values up to around 1500 J/kg Thursday afternoon
and increasing mid level lapse rates. SPC has included our
entire area in a Marginal for Thursday into Thurs evening, and
that looks good.

The front should push on through our area by 18z Friday. Showers
and storms will end from west to east Friday, with chances
mainly confined to Kentucky Friday afternoon. Rainfall totals
remain fairly consistent with one half to three quarters of an
inch north to an inch and a half south.

Cooler air will filter in behind the cold front, with highs
Friday around 10 degrees cooler than Thursday. Over the weekend,
the cooling trend will continue, especially Sunday into Monday
after another weak cold front moves through our region Saturday
night. The front should not have enough moisture to work with to
produce showers, but it will bring in more cooler air. Highs by
Monday will be 6 to 12 degrees below normal. Dry conditions will
continue into Tuesday as temperatures begin to moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

The TAFs are VFR, but a brief MVFR ceiling will be possible
around midday mainly in the south. The chance of showers and
even thunderstorms is non-zero. The expected coverage is too low
to mention in the forecasts at this time. Western sites will
have a chance in the morning and northern sites in the afternoon
and evening. South winds will pick up to around 10kts by midday
and could gust 15-20kts at times through the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...DRS


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