Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 120701
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
201 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend through Thursday, then a cooling trend Friday on
  through the weekend into early next week.

- Brief chance for a few showers Tuesday night into Wednesday
  morning.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Wednesday night
  into Thursday, then numerous showers and scattered
  thunderstorms expected Thursday night through Friday
  afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Overall a warm, dry, and quiet day is in store today. High pressure
centered to our south continues to dominate our weather today.
Southwesterly flow at the sfc will help our warming trend. We will
likely overachieve guidance today because of how dry it is, though
it will be mitigated slightly by an increase in  high clouds today.
NBM has a 90-100% chance of highs being over 65 today and a 30-60%
chance of highs being over 70 today. Lows tonight will be in the
upper 40s to around 50.

Wednesday a shortwave aloft moves through and brings a slight (20-
30%) chance for some showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. Though
there will be an increase in cloud cover Wednesday, the daytime
should be mainly dry. By Wednesday night a warm front will be north
of the area attached to a sfc low over KS. This will lead to modest
moisture return to the area. In the warm sector NBM has 80-100%
chance of highs being greater than 70 on Wednesday and a 40-70%
chance of highs greater than 75. The warmer temperatures may be
mitigated by cloud cover.

Thursday there is a large longwave trof with an embedded closed low
over SOCAL with a leading wave over NE. The associated sfc low is
over the NE,IA,KS,MO junction. Thursday will be breezy ahead of a
cold front with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts of 25-30 mph.
NBM has a 60-80% chance of highs greater than 75 on Thursday. As the
cold front progresses precip chances will ramp up starting
Wednesday night and resulting in at least likelies (60-80%)
with the passage of the cold front Thursday evening and
overnight. The overall severe threat is to our south and
shouldn`t be a concern for us. Precip tapers off by Friday
afternoon. Precip totals have backed off in the north slightly
to around a 0.5" and remain around 1.5" in the south along the
KY/TN border.

Friday night into Saturday there is better agreement in split flow
aloft with the southern closed low spinning over SOCAL/AZ and a
second northern trof descending over the Great Lakes region. At the
sfc a 1008 mb low is over the northeast CONUS and is moving east
from the original shortwave. A second 1004 mb sfc low is descending
over the Great Lakes region thanks to the northern stream trof. A
second cold front moves through Saturday night from this northern
system. It will depend on how far south this low moves and how much
moisture return we see but 49% of the ensembles keep us dry through
Sunday. Highs will be cooler Sunday and Monday with highs in the 50s
to near 60 on Sunday, and in the 40s and 50s on Monday. &&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

The TAFs are VFR. South southwest winds should pick up by late
morning and gust to near 20kts through the afternoon, before
diminishing to under 10kts by 00Z. There might be a few cu
around in the afternoon, but otherwise, look for increasing
high clouds through the afternoon and evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...DRS


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