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000
FXUS63 KPAH 112320
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
620 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

REVISED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CAP MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SAME AREA. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST
MINUTE TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS SOMEWHAT BACK ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING IT DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70.
THIS SHOULD YIELD HEAT INDICES OVER MOST OF THE QUAD STATE OF AROUND
100 DEGREES. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS TO THAT EFFECT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT PRECIP COULD LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
OF OUR CWA THURSDAY MORNING BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA.  THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE CENTRAL EAST COAST BY 00Z
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE PAH
FORECAST AREA.  THIS WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY.

THE FORECAST FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS A
CHALLENGE.  MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BUT WITH DIFFERENT TIMINGS
AND QPF AMOUNTS.  GFS SPREADS SOME DECENT QPF ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHILE GEM AND ECMWF SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  WITH MODEL
TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL HINDERING CONFIDENCE LEVELS...BELIEVE THERE
WILL BE INCREASED POPS AND QPF AT SOME POINT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...MOST LIKELY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...IF MODELS
COME MORE IN LINE.  CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE POPS INTO MONDAY BASED ON
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH LOWER POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL FORECAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL PICK UP TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...RJP