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000
FXUS63 KPAH 201707
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1207 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE FRONT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR WEST STAYS...FOR THE
MOST PART...TO OUR WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. ITS OUTFLOW MAY SET OFF
A SHOWER OR STORM CHANCE FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN FRINGES BY
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD HOLD ANOTHER 12-24 HRS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY. FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING OVER MO/AR DEVELOPS AS UPPER LOW/HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE RESULTANT COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN EASTWARD
INTO THE PAH FA...WITH AN UPPER JET STREAK PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ENHANCING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO ACTUALLY MAKE A PUSH INTO THE FA BY 12Z WED AND THE
ASSOCIATED PRE FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS SHOULD PRECEDE IT...SO PEAK
POPS LIKELY OR BETTER BY TUESDAY NIGHT-CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY
STILL APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE TIME PERIOD FOR STORMS. SWODY2
OUTLOOKS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SLGT RISK SVR ACCORDINGLY.

THE UPPER LOW ROUNDS A BROADER TROF OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
WED-WED NIGHT AND ULTIMATELY DRIVES THE FRONT TO OUR EAST AS
HEIGHT FALLS MIGRATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. CONTINUED
PCPN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE THRU THE WED NIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKE
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE HOLD BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AS READINGS REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HERALD A WARMING TREND...INCREASED
HUMIDITY...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM BY
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY TO
INHIBIT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

SCT-BKN CU WITH SSW WINDS GENERALLY 10-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
IS UNSTABLE...BUT LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED.
WILL TRENDS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY. KEPT PROB30S FOR TSRA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH WINDS LEVELING OFF.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$