Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 180808
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
308 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather concerns are expected again today due to
  very dry air. More significant fire weather concerns are
  possible Tuesday as winds become very breezy from the
  southwest.

- Chilly temperatures will continue today, with a widespread
  hard freeze expected tonight. Tender early season vegetation
  will be damaged or killed.

- Temperatures will moderate to around normal values for the
  middle to end of the week, with a slight chance of light rain
  forecast Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Today through Tuesday night...Surface analysis shows a 1031 mb
area of high pressure centered over the central Great Plains,
funneling chilly and very dry air into the region. The global
ensemble mean shows 850 mb temperatures staying near -10C today,
which will keep high temperatures in the middle to upper 40s
for much of the region, about 10-15 degrees below normal.
Northwest winds will gust up to 20 mph this afternoon under
partly sunny skies. Tonight, winds will become light as the
surface high elongates zonally into the Mid- South. This will
allow low temperatures to tank into the middle to upper 20s
areawide. While the growing season hasn`t official started yet,
reissued the Special Weather Statement highlighting the
potential for a hard freeze to damage early season tender
vegetation.

Winds will ramp up significantly and become southwest Tuesday.
Between the surface high positioned to our south and a
deepening area of low pressure progged to pass through the
northern Great Lakes region, wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph will be
possible during the day. Sustained winds will be elevated as
well, in the 15 to 20 mph range. Temperatures will moderate
towards normal values as 850 mb rise back above freezing, with
high temperatures forecast to reach 57 to 67 degrees from east
to west respectively. The pressure gradient will relax Tuesday
night, allowing winds to decrease. Temperatures will be
seasonably chilly, with lows falling into the middle to upper
30s.

Wednesday through Sunday...Global models continue to show a
split mid- and upper-level flow pattern developing across the
CONUS for the second half of the week. A weak southern stream
surface low will develop and trek along the Gulf Coast Thursday
into Friday, with a poleward extending trough axis bringing an
increase in clouds and perhaps some very light isolated to
widely scattered rain showers. The trend has been towards a
weaker and drier progression with this system, and at this
point, it would not be surprising to see the NBM trend
completely dry during this period in later forecasts. A more
organized surface low looks to organize over the southern and
central Great Plains very late in the forecast period Sunday
night into next Monday, and this looks to represent our next
chance of notable rainfall.

The generally zonal flow pattern will keep temperatures near
normal values, with highs fluctuating between the upper 50s and
lower to middle 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the middle to
upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Gusty northwest winds will persist into early evening before
diminishing. Similarly, a field of SCT-BKN070 bases may
persist/linger, particularly north, for a few hours before their
dissipation. Tmrw will see similar conditions to today with the
passage of the upper trof...another round of close to the same
VFR level SCT-BKN bases, likely most prevalent north...will
rotate across the Flight Terminals as gusty northwesterlies
resume.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Very dry air and northwest winds gusting up to 20 mph are
expected to be prevalent across the area this afternoon. RH
values will again fall to about 20-35%, with the lowest values
over the Mark Twain National Forest area.

A more substantial risk of fire danger will develop on Tuesday,
as southwest winds ramp up considerably. Sustained winds will
be 15-20 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph through the afternoon. The
southwest flow will allow dew point temperatures to creep up
slightly, so minimum RH values will be around 25-35% in the
afternoon. However, with another two days with significant
drying of fuels expected, the need for a fire weather watch or
warning on Tuesday will need to be considered with later
forecast packages.

For now, issued a Special Weather Statement highlighting today`s
elevated fire danger and Tuesday`s more significant risk.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DH
FIRE WEATHER...DWS


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