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000
FXUS63 KPAH 231141
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

REVISED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THESE SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AT
THE TIME OF WRITING. EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING. THEREAFTER...WEAK ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KEPT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VALUES. ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.

BEYOND THAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND MOST LIKELY SATURDAY AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL FOR THE SEASON...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT CONDITIONS LOCALLY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS STILL UP FOR
GRABS. LONG TERM MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT. THE GULF WILL BE
WIDE OPEN THROUGH THE PERIOD SO MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL. WHETHER
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE MOISTURE WITH NO
CAPPING IS THE BIG QUESTION. UNTIL MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS FOR
SURE.

ACCORDING TO THE GFS...ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AN H5 RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP IT DRY AND A TAD WARMER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

UNFORTUNATELY THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF SEE THINGS DIFFERENTLY. BOTH OF
THESE MODELS SUPPRESS THE H5 RIDGE AND BRING A SERIES OF RIPPLES OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA AND VIRTUALLY CRANK OUT CHANCES
FOR PRECIP OVER ALL OR PART OF THE CWA EVERY DAY AND NIGHT IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. AT THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...THE
CANADIAN AND ECMWF BEGIN BUILDING AN H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION.

HOPEFULLY WITH TIME MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
SOMEWHAT DRIER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW
NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT
KEVV AND KOWB. AN MVFR CEILING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KEVV AND
KOWB DURING THE EVENING...BUT A TREND TOWARDS CLEARING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP