Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 151034
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
534 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers mainly across southeast Missouri and western
  Kentucky will diminish later this morning as a cold front
  moves south across the region. A rumble of thunder cannot be
  ruled out.

- Dry weather returns this weekend and continues into next
  weekend. A dry arctic cold front moves through on Sunday
  causing lows to fall back below freezing Sunday night through
  Monday night. Temperatures quickly rebound by the middle of
  the week with highs in the 60s.

- Next chance for rain arrives on Thursday with a low pressure
  system, but rainfall amounts look to be light at this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 529 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Sfc observations show a cold front has now entered NW portions of
the FA and will move SE through this morning. In the wake of cooler
air and low stratus clouds that are in store for today after fropa,
the CAMs show one final round of stratiform pcpn will continue into
western Kentucky through about 11-12z before tapering off to
lingering showers. A rumble or two of thunder cannot be ruled out
with the meager MUCAPE that remains, but overall instability will
quickly wane the next few hours. For this reason, have reduced NBM
thunder mention given stabilization.

Despite the return to dry conditions, temps will remain a bit above
normal with maxTs today and Saturday in the 60s and minTs in the
30s/40s. A much stronger arctic cold front will then bring more
significant changes Sunday, but will lack pcpn as low pressure
passes by well north across Ontario/Quebec. Robust 850-700 mb CAA
will translate to more seasonable maxTs in the 50s Sunday and
unseasonably cold in the 40s Monday. Meanwhile, sub-freezing
minTs will be a concern both Sunday night and especially Monday
night in the 20s.

The good news is Monday is the only day when temps will be 10
degrees below normal as a warming trend results in a quick
return to the 60s. This is due to anticyclonic flow associated
with sfc high pressure over the lower Mississippi River Valley
on Tuesday that allows for southerly return flow. Meanwhile, as
a 500 mb trough quickly exits the Ohio Valley and allows for
rising heights aloft, a rex block will eventually breakdown.
This results in a 500 mb low ejecting across the central Plains
by Thursday bringing the next risk for pcpn. QPF does not look
terribly concerning as the 0z GEFS has a 20-40% probability of
exceeding a tenth of an inch. The 0z EPS is a bit wetter with a
50-60% probability, but only 10-20% for exceeding a half of an
inch. This is due to sfc low pressure that eventually develops
down south. A southern track also means it is likely we will
remain outside the warm sector and lack instability with NBM
thunder probabilities barley reaching the slight chance 15%
threshold.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A cold front is currently moving from northwest to southeast
across the region this morning with MVFR cigs spreading across
all terminals. Have included TEMPOs for IFR cigs that are also
possible. Otherwise, a brief -SHRA remains possible mainly at
KPAH later this morning until the front pushes more south. North
winds around 8-13 kts will give way to light and variable winds
tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW


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