Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 301937

237 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms persisted across
west KY this afternoon, with scattered development seen from SEMO
into SRN IL in an axis of slightly greater instability. The
general PoP depiction through tonight will be highest across the
SE 1/2, slightly lower NW 1/2. Locally heavy rain will remain a
concern with PW`s over 2" across much of the area, coupled with a
persistent low level SW jet and mid level flow unidirectional to
the low trop. Once the final wave moves through Sunday morning and
dampens out, convection over mainly west KY into SW IN should push
on to the east. Will have lowering PoPs through the day and early
evening. Later Sunday night through Labor day looks somewhat
inactive. We lowered PoPs for labor day, and kept just small
chances far north over portions of SRN IL into SW IN. Not
expecting much coverage overall. Chances will ramp up Monday night
when a front moves toward the region and mid level energy moves
across the Midwest toward the Ohio Valley. In terms of temps, used
a blend of existing numbers (persistence) and latest raw model

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The long term will start out busy as the mid level flow remains
active. Another shortwave will approach from the west on Tuesday,
along with weakening front at the surface. Models generate healthy
QPF as the front enters the CWA around 12Z Tuesday in parts of
southwest IL and southeast MO. Convergence/lift weakens along the
front as it moves east during the morning and especially during
afternoon. However, it still appears convection will be likely in
the western sections early in the day, possibly lessening in
coverage during the afternoon as things progress eastward. The 00Z/12Z
ECMWF is more robust with QPF especially for the afternoon, as the
GFS really drops off QPF during that time. Will raise POPS though to
just shy of the likely category with the best chances in MO/IL.
Instability parameters are off the charts on the GFS so if we have
enough lift, there may be more convection then the QPF indicates.

The front ends up stalling over the southern sections on Tuesday
night, so will linger POPS with best chances south. The GFS
indicates that the front will start moving northward as a warm front
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. In turn, the GFS indicates
scattered convection during the day and into the night. The flow
aloft remains zonal with the center of the upper high centered over
the deep south. The ECMWF is not as pronounced with showing much of
a retreat back north, and therefore does not show much in the way of
QPF. In fact, it shows the upper ridge building somewhat across our
area, which will tend to keep us dry through Wednesday night. Will
maintain low chance POPS for now until we can get a better handle on
what this front will end up doing.

By Thursday and through the end of the period, it appears as though
upper level ridging will take over which should end any chances for
decent chances for rain, except for isolated afternoon chances.

Highs will be in the upper 80s translating to the lower 90s by the
end of the period. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, it should
continue to feel like summer for a while longer.


Issued at 1217 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

With the upper trof slowly approaching from the west, expect waves
of convection of varying intensity to continue through the forecast
period. Best chances after 00z should be east of a KEVV-KJBR line
across our area, slowly diminishing from the west. With the wind
staying up overnight, was not concerned with fog. VSBY restrictions
should be mainly with precipitation. We are forecasting cigs down
into the MVFR category, possibly pushing IFR. Winds from the SSW
should average about 5 kts.



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