Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 132046
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
246 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 244 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Average to below average confidence in the long term due to model
differences.

Rather complicated forecast for the next 24-36 hours as an
overrunning precipitation scenario materializes with a system lifts
northeast out of the southern plains. Coincident with this is a
short wave diving southeast out of the northern plains.

Starting after midnight tonight precipitation in the form of snow is
expected to spread across our CWA. By late tonight precipitation
chances will increase but due to a bulge of warm air in the lower
levels a mix of freezing rain/sleet will begin moving into far
western sections of southeast Missouri. Snowfall is expected to
increase through the morning hours over the northeast two thirds of
the CWA while the mixture of freezing rain/sleet will migrate
farther east into far western Kentucky. Snowfall should begin to
slowly taper off from west to east in the afternoon but the freezing
rain/sleet mixture will push farther east. Sunday night a
rain/freezing rain mixture over the entire area should transition to
all rain except over portions of southeast Illinois and southwest
Indiana.

Snowfall totals should range from 2-3 inches over southeast Illinois
and southwest Indiana, then taper off to a half inch or less over
far southeast Missouri. Ice accumulations should be light and
generally limited to the southwest half of the CWA, but could cause
problems on elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses. Due to
the mixed nature of this event and the level of uncertainty, decided
to issue a Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM Monday.

Precipitation from this system will slowly come to an end Monday but
precipitation is expected to be all liquid. Rain may linger Monday
evening over the southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky. No
sooner than precipitation ends from this system, precipitation
chances are possible over the western and northwestern sections of
our CWA late Monday night. Due to the uncertainty of low
temperatures Monday night,just went with a rain/freezing rain mix or
now.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

The primary focus for the long term is the Tuesday chance of
precipitation which will impact mainly the northern parts of the
region given the causant low pressure center moving across northern
IL and IN. Temperature profiles/thickness values support a liquid
event with the following qualifiers: should precip arrive any sooner
Tuesday than the expected mid morning time frame (14-15Z) then a
brief period of freezing rain would be possible in the Evansville
tri-state region, however this currently appears unlikely based on
model consensus and trends.

Also on the back end of this system will introduce a chance of light
snow/flurries for Tuesday evening across mainly southwest IN as
vertical temperatures profiles become colder. However this should be
rather brief as the low and its moisture field departs to the
northeast.

Wednesday could bring some increase in clouds as a 500mb shortwave
moves SE across the OH Valley, otherwise the latter half of the week
will undergo a substantial pattern change with a 500mb ridge
building across our section of the country. The end result will be
dry and much milder temperatures with highs well into the 50s by
Thursday and into the lower 60s by Friday.

Still expecting a weak cold front to sweep across our region by late
Friday bringing some clouds and a small chance of showers before
trimming temps about 10 degrees for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR conditions will prevail until Sunday morning as mid clouds
enter the area ahead of an approaching winter storm system. Could
see brief light snow near KEVV, KOWB, and KCGI for a few hours
before dawn. All sites will likely see cigs drop to MVFR, and even
IFR cigs/vsbys at times, once snow starts mid morning. Winds will
veer from north/northeast today to east/southeast by Sunday
morning.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...RS
AVIATION...BP2


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