Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KPAH 300454
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1154 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

PERSISTENCE WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL PATTERN AND RESULTANT
FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE.
THE MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS CYCLONIC ASPECT.
SO AFTER ANOTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION PINWHEELING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY A LOW CHANCE...WE WILL
TRANSITION TO AN MCS SCENARIO WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY... FOLLOWED BY A LULL...THEN
ANOTHER ROUND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST CHANCE IS PRETTY MUCH
AREA WIDE...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL SECTIONS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE
SECOND ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SW
1/2 OF THE AREA WITH POPS A BIT LOWER HEADING NE TOWARD THE KEVV
TRI- STATE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAYBE SEVERE...BUT THINK OVERALL THE
GREATEST HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF MOS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MORE IN LINE WITH STRAIGHT MODEL OUTPUT
WEDNESDAY / WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL PREFERENCE...A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GEM/NAM AS THEY SEEM TO HANDLE THE WEDNESDAY / WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SCENARIO GIVEN THE DECENT AGREEMENT SEEN. GIVEN ALL THE
RAIN...AS FAR AS HEADLINES GO PREFER TO SEE A BIT MORE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH AMOUNTS AND FORECAST QPF PLACEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND. THE 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TROUGH...BRINGING PERIODIC EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CLOUDINESS/PRECIP AND EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND/OR LIFT OUT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
WARMER TEMPS.

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. EVEN
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
A DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE FRONT NOT DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION...THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED THAN ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WILL KEEP POPS AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
TREND TOWARD LOWER PRECIP COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE
FRONT LIFTS WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

UNDER CLEAR SKIES...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND QUITE
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH PRIMARILY OUT OF THE WEST/SW. SOME MVFR
FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY AT THE KCGI TERMINAL.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST TUE...POSSIBLY GUSTING ABOVE 15
KTS AT KEVV/KOWB AT TIMES. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR TSTM AT THE
KEVV/KOWB TERMINALS VERY LATE IN THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD...BUT NO
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM....MY
AVIATION.....DB


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.