Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 290446 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1146 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW MILKY SKY WITH CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENTS ENHANCED
DIURNALLY THIS PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FA. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE NIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...LIGHT
WIND REGIME MAY AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OF TEMPS IN THE 80S/60S WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM/OPEN
SECTOR FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS
WITH ITS GRADUAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE
UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING
WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HAVING A GREAT TIME DECHIPERING WHAT EXACTLY TO DO WITH THIS
FRONT. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME KEEP IT IN
SOME PART OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRENDS PUSH THE
FRONT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MESSY ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME
SORT OF LOW POP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL STALL OUT DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. NOW...DURING THAT TIME...THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FORMS...BUT OF
COURSE MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT
WILL REALLY PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE TYPE POPS. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT WOULD
PROBABLY MAKE MORE SENSE TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL
MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST TRENDS DO INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL PROBABLY END
UP BEING RATHER COOL...BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...ALL IT WOULD TAKE
WOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SITE TO SEE WARMER
READINGS. THERE IS A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
VFR CIGS AND VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AND 15Z RESPECTIVELY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR TSRA AFTER 18Z BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE TSRA IN A
FM GROUP FOR SO MANY HOURS...SO JUST DECIDED TO GO WITH A VCTS FOR
NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...CLW
AVIATION...JP


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