Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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689
FXUS63 KPAH 301724
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1224 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Weak high pressure will move across the area today with mainly dry
conditions. May be isolated afternoon convection along, west of
Highway 67 in SEMO. Dry tonight, then convective chances slowly
increase from west to east Tuesday through Wednesday as moisture
moves in from the west due to weak SW flow aloft. It will remain
warm and muggy through the period. Model preference EC/NAM blend,
with temperatures an average of previous numbers and MOS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

A cold front will have just cleared the forecast area at the start
of the extended or 7am Thursday. The front will slowly push south of
the area as an upper level short wave kicks to the southeast. This
will turn the upper level flow zonal briefly with a weak
perturbation in the flow that will move through Thursday during the
day. The front will be weak and slow to scour out the moisture in
place. However we will have surface based instability in addition to
instability aloft albeit relatively weak with CAPE`s ranging from
500 to 1000 j/kg2 and LI`s of a negative 4. We also will have K
index values in the mid 30s. When combined with peak heating of the
afternoon we would be remiss not include thunderstorms for Thursday.
Especially with slow moving frontal position not absolutely positive.

This will bring temperatures below normal Thursday but slowly warm
back to or slightly above normal through the weekend. Forecast
sounding indicate a northerly drier flow at the surface and aloft
would not expect storms until possibly Sunday. A second cold front
is poised to move through Sunday as winds finally start backing to
the west and finally south. This will provide some moisture recovery
as dew points struggle to reach 60. There is very weak surface
instability with LI`s a negative one and questionable CAPE of 500-
1000 j/kg2. Aloft K index values will struggle to reach 30c. However
with a boundary in the area felt the need for at least a low pop
mention at this time for Sunday. Weak high pressure will return
early next week...keeping most areas dry across the heartland.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
increasing high and mid level clouds. Light and variable winds will
veer to the southeast by Tuesday.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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