Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 291505
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1005 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Mid-morning update to reflect pre-warm frontal convective activity
moving east-northeast through the Quad State region. Anticipation
is that most of the energy and lift will shift northward into
southwest/southern Illinois through the late morning and early
afternoon. Depending on the persistence of the upper support, may
need to drag precipitation shield further to the east into
Southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of West Kentucky.

With increasing pressure gradient, increase winds in Southern
Illinois this morning, working south into Southeast Missouri and
Southwest Kentucky.

Increased dewpoints and winds for the remainder of the day as
well.

To keep in collaboration with WFO SGF, mentioned some gusty winds
and small hail late this afternoon in our Fire Weather Counties
west of the Public zone counties in our County Warning Area.

UPDATE Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Upper low was over New Mexico this a.m. with extensive convection
from Texas north into the Plains. The models track the upper low
into the central Plains by midnight tonight, then move it east
into Missouri by 00z Friday.

Will continue with slight chance PoPs for convection today with
some elevated warm advection, increased moisture and weak mid
level support moving northeast across the area, mainly west 1/2.
Otherwise variable clouds.

Tonight, best convective chances will hold off til late evening
for the Missouri Ozarks, with convection pushing east from
Midnight through daybreak Thursday across the area. In the wake
of this round, the models show destabilization through the day
with a second batch of energy moving northeast across the area,
while a surface low less than 1000 mb pushes east into Missouri by
18z. Thus more than one round of convection, with severe weather
potential in play given substantial shear and adequate instability.
Refer to the SPC day 1 and day 2 outlooks for more info. Enhanced
to moderate risk some of the area, especially east of I-55 into
west KY Thursday.

Chances of convection will lower Thursday night and Friday
(gradually), as the upper low continues east into Indiana by 18z
Friday. Will advertise return dry weather for Friday night.

Overall model preference was a GFS/NAM blend. Its upper low track
resembles yesterdays 00z ECMWF. A blend of MOS and existing
forecast numbers were used for temps.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

A dynamic split-flow pattern will continue to dominate the weather
through the long term. Forecast confidence starts off above average
over the weekend, but tapers to below average early next week with
continued model variability.

Much of the weekend is looking dry as models agree on building an
upper level ridge east into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The
core of the surface high should remain well to our north as it moves
across southeastern Canada, so conditions will remain mild. High
temperatures in the lower to mid 60s on Saturday should warm
appreciably into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Sunday. Late in the
weekend, clouds will be on the increase ahead of the next weather
system, but rain chances are forecast to remain just west of the
area at this time.

Upper level energy entering the Pacific Northwest tonight is
forecast to generate yet another cut-off low over the Southwest on
Friday. This low is forecast to track east across the Plains into
the Mississippi Valley early next week. Models continue to differ on
their handling of this low, but with the latest 00Z run, they do
appear to be coming into somewhat better agreement. As a result, we
plan to stick with chance probabilities Sunday night and Monday
night, with likelies on Monday. Will keep a mention of thunder
Monday and Monday night with better instability in close proximity
to the low.

If the current model consensus pans out, the mean track of the low
would be across or just south of the forecast area. Should the low
track further north, the potential for severe weather would
increase. If the low takes a more southern track, that would leave
heavy rain as the main concern.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Generally VFR conditions today through this evening, with east
winds up to 10 kts. Some isolated showers/storms possible,
especially southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, maybe far west
Kentucky. Better chance of storms and showers tonight moving
southwest to northeast across the area, primarily from 04/05z
through 12z, with wind veering more to the southeast. May see MVFR
cig and vsby conditions as a result.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith



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