Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 280803
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH VORTICITY SPOKING THRU
THE MEAN LONG WAVE UPPER TROF AND INDUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
-RW/-SW MAINLY SEMO THIS MORNING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH RIDGES TO
OUR EAST AT THE SAME TIME...AND ANOTHER COLD/RAW DAY IS THE
RESULT.

ON SUNDAY...A FRONT ENTERS/MAKES PASSAGE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND BRINGS WITH IT AN ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESP
ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA SUNDAY
EVENING. AFTER THIS FRONT PASSES...WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME
MODERATION IN WX/TEMPS.

SATURDAY 40S/20S WILL RECOVER TO 50S/30S SUNDAY AND THEN 60S/40S
TO START THE MODERATING TREND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WORK
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODEL VARIABILITY IS UNUSUALLY LARGE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE MODELS HANDLE INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES IN BOTH STREAMS RATHER POORLY...JUDGING FROM THE LACK OF
MODEL AGREEMENT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GENERAL MODEL THEME SEEMS TO BE THAT
WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING MILDER TEMPS. THE FORECAST
WILL BE KEPT DRY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MILDER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE BETWEEN
THE TWO BRANCHES OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...WHICH MAKES PRECIP
FORECASTING MORE OF A CHALLENGE.

ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. AGAIN...THE MODELS HANDLE THIS FEATURE
DIFFERENTLY...SO POPS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...SINCE THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS DIVERGE REGARDING THE TIMING OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE VARY SO MUCH THAT THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT BEST. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS. THUNDER APPEARS TO BE A GOOD
BET ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN
BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DELAYS THE FRONT UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MID CLOUDS SEMO MAY INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT LIQUID/FROZEN PCPN
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY WEST OF KCGI
TERMINAL SO WE`LL JUST INTRODUCE SOME SCT-BKN MID DECKS. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BOTH CIGS/VSBYS THRU THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...MY


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