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000
FXUS63 KPAH 201621
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1121 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather along with below normal temperatures are expected this
  weekend.

- Conditions continue to look ideal for some frost formation Sunday
  night as lows drop into the mid to upper 30s.

- Next rain chance arrives Tuesday, with additional chances possible
  later in the week.

- Active weather pattern may setup April 27-29, including the
  possibility for some severe thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The upper level flow starts out zonal across our area today, in
between shortwave energy progressing from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast U.S. and southern stream energy migrating from Texas
across the southeast U.S. The leading edge of the latter has
resulted in some shower and isolated thunder activity near the TN/KY
border early this morning. That will shift south into TN before
sunrise, and the remainder of the weekend looks dry as the southern
system keeps its precip south of our region.

Surface high pressure situated from Montana to Nebraska today will
slide southeast and become centered across the Mid-Mississippi
Valley Sunday night. Northerly flow associated with it will keep
temperatures roughly 7 to 12 degrees below normal through the
weekend.

Tonight will likely feature a good amount of cloud cover
associated with the aforementioned system migrating across the
southern U.S. Enough wind should also be present, as the center of
the high pressure remains further west. There may be a window of
time in our far north (KMVN) though as skies clear and winds
decrease towards sunrise that may observe some patchy frost Sunday
morning.

Sunday night will feature a more ideal scenario for frost to develop
as good radiational cooling develops with calm winds and clear skies.
Dewpoints should be down into the lower half of the 30s. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see some typically colder spots sneak awfully close to
the freezing mark. Certainly looks like widespread mid to upper 30s
across the area.

Surface winds start to take on more of a southerly component on
Monday, with moderating temperatures expected through Tuesday.
Shortwave energy is expected to move from the Upper Midwest into the
Northeast during this time, which will help drag a cold front
through the Ohio Valley. Models differ on QPF amounts and timing
though. GFS and it`s ensemble seem to be the most aggressive both
regarding higher QPF (0.20 to 0.40") and a bit faster with it
(Tuesday late morning into early evening). The Canadian and ECMWF
ensembles aren`t as wet (generally 0.10" or less) and generally late
afternoon or evening for timing, possibly lingering through the
night.

Behind the frontal passage on Tuesday, northerly flow returns
Wednesday and may linger into Thursday. This likely means a bit
cooler temperatures during this time period. NBM highs in the mid
60s to low 70s may be a bit too warm.

Ensemble guidance suggests a more amplified pattern developing by
next weekend with ridging across the east and troughing out west. As
the large scale trough pivots east into the center of the country it
could lead to some severe weather concerns. Still rather far
out in time, but for our region it appears that April 28-29
would be most favored. GEFS is the most aggressive with
instability suggesting a 40-50% chance of CAPE exceeding 2000
J/kg during this period. Beforehand, several disturbances
ejecting ahead of the main trough could lead to periodic rain
chances. The first of these may arrive as early as late Thursday
or Thursday night. Temperatures should warm above normal by
next Friday or Saturday, and very well may exceed 80 again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions prevail as high cirrus clouds are now spreading
across the region from the west. Clouds thicken overnight with
mid level clouds around 12 kft AGL. As high pressure builds in
on Sunday morning, skies will turn mostly sunny.

Breezy north winds around 10 kts with gusts near 20 kts will
become light tonight around 5 kts. North winds around 10 kts are
expected again on Sunday, but not as gusty.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DW