Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 142102
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
402 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another warm day will give way to unsettled weather as a round
  of thunderstorms are forecasted late today into tonight.
  Conditions will be favorable for some storms to turn severe
  with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. 4PM
  to 1AM is when the risk will be the greatest. Localized flash
  flooding is also possible with heavy downpours.

- Conditions will be breezy today with southerly winds. Winds
  gusts between 25 to 35 mph are possible through the afternoon.

- Dry weather returns for the weekend before another cold front
  arrives Sunday night that will cause lows to fall back below
  freezing through Monday night. Temperatures quickly rebound by
  the middle of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Large scale ascent is increasing over MO/AR/OK as evidenced by
the large convective clusters forming there. More subtle
towering cumulus is evident along the I-44 corridor in
Missouri. 18z SGF sounding has about 2200 J/kg of MLCAPE
starting to approach the convective temperature even with a
residual inversion. ACARS soundings from flights in the region
show that cap is slowly eroding overhead as well, probably
collocated with the clouds clearing in the northwest on
satellite as that cumuloustratus was presumably trapped just
under the inversion. That cloud layer did limit our heating
today, but we will be pulling a south and southwest wind out of
west Tennessee where it is 81 degrees with mid 60s dewpoints.
Deep layer shear is quite strong, at 50-55 kts. Lower layer
shear is also relatively strong although not quite as top-end at
30kts in the 0-1km layer with SRH calculated around 200 m2/s2
on KPAHs VWP. Significant Tornado Parameter is about 1 to 2 to
our west and will probably be in that range for much of the
afternoon once warmer air moves in.

Long story short we will be watching the TCU in Missouri to
develop into more discrete cells. CAMs/WoFs really want to
develop a few longer tracked discrete cells from this activity
into our northwestern counties by 3-5 pm. If that were to happen
it would obviously carry an all-hazards threat of
tornado/wind/hail. The instability over southern MO and northern
Arkansas would also potentially allow for some development
ahead of the main MCS complex that could track into the area.
The main MCS would then track this direction by this evening.
That system would carry a continued severe weather risk mainly
in the form of wind and hail but QLCS tornado can`t be ruled out
given the available instability and shear. Wet bulb zero heights
are also quite low at 8000-9000 ft so hail will be possible with
any deep convection. The heaviest rain signal is to our south
but will need to keep at least one eye peeled to flood potential
although ground conditions are pretty dry.

Cold front works through by the morning leaving a cooler and
cloudy day. The only other real item of concern in the forecast
is a strong cold front on Sunday that will leave behind some
sub-freezing low temperatures on Sunday night and Monday night
before southwesterly flow builds back in and moderates
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

MVFR-low VFR bases will lower/deteriorate this evening/overnight
as a cold front`s approach initiates a convective line of storms
with its passage. Further restrictions to IFR CIGS/VSBYS is
anticipated with the thunderstorms. After the front`s passage,
winds will shift to the west, then to the north, as bases
deteriote while some VCTS/VCSH lingers awhile. Time/height cross
sections suggest restricted CIGS will hold for the bulk of the
forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


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