Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 311938
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
238 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

High pressure at the surface is wedging into the Commonwealth from
the west thru the short term forecast period. Around the
periphery of the high, convective elements were noted this
morning, affecting our far northern/northwestern counties for a
brief period. This will continue to be the case, as a slowly
meandering upper low drifts across the lower Ohio valley, offering
just enough lift in this area where moisture is pooling. This
will offer a 20 pop or less (silent isolated mentions possible)
thru tmrw, after which time, high pressure at both the surface and
aloft suppresses any isolated chances still lingering. The upper
low is effectively pinched off by high pressure aloft that is
building in from the southeast and also from the north/west. This
should be enough to preclude any uvm parcels that would otherwise
form convective elements.

As this synoptic transition occurs, we`ll see a slight uptick in
temps, to nr 90/nr 70 for highs lows, a summer like feel with tds
in the u60s-l70s and patchy morning fog still possible each day in
the little/no wind environ.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Starting with 12Z Thursday, the upper level pattern will feature a
large upper level ridge from the Mid Mississippi Valley north into
the Great Lakes and Ontario. The upper ridge is expected to remain
in place and strengthen Thursday through the end of the week. This
should help to keep things dry with some clouds around, as a layer
of moisture will be situated between 850mb-700mb. Due to the heat
and humidity, can`t rule out an isolated storm where better moisture
becomes situated...but all in all dry.

At the surface, the core of high pressure will be to our
northeast...in northern Quebec. The center of the high will slowly
migrate from southeastern Canada southward into the Mid Atlantic
Coast by Sunday. So while surface winds may start off with more of
an easterly component, a veer to the south is expected with time.
This will likely advect some mid level moisture into the area off
the Atlantic Ocean. This additional moisture and a weakness in the
upper ridge noted in the models, may be enough to spark some showers
and storms by Sunday night in our eastern counties. However, models
do differ on how far west the moisture makes it and whether or not
rain chances are warranted. Decided to leave pops in the slight
chance category for now.

Very late in the extended period, a frontal boundary tries to impact
the area. There are huge timing and strength differences, so
have only introduced some small chances for collaboration purposes.

Otherwise, it will be hot and rather humid conditions through the
period as 850 mb temps remain pretty steady in the upper teens to
around 20 deg C. Expect highs to range from around 90 into the lower
90s, with lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Humidity values
will likely be rather uncomfortable but not oppressive.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Low VFR diurnal cu bases anticipated and could be temporary cigs
at KEVV/KOWB today. While isolated showers are possible, chances
are too low to mention in vicinity this package. Otherwise light
wind regime (mainly diurnal) will allow for possible vsby
restrictions in patchy fog late tonight-early tmrw, similar to
today.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$


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