Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 241943
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
143 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

SPEAKING IN RELATIVE TERMS...TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOMORROW AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
TONIGHT`S LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL RISE INTO AND THROUGH THE 30S
TMRW FOR PM HIGHS...AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE ALL WILL REACH OR
EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK...SO IT OFFERS THE BEST MELTING CHANCE
WE`VE HAD IN AWHILE.

THAT SAID...ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC COLD IS POISED TO
TAKE SHAPE AND PUMMEL ITS WAY TOWARD/THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MEAN LONG WAVE PATTERN REALLY SHARPENS AS A
BROADER TROF EVOLVES AND MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN
RESPONSE TO ITS PARENT LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY SHOVE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND
SPILL ITS COLD AIR IN BRUTEST FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT...ON THE
STRENGTH OF A 1040+ MB SURFACE HIGH THAT WEDGES ITSELF FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MUTED THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S...FOLLOWED BY SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THESE NUMBERS WILL PUSH RECORDS IN
SOME LOCALES...FOR EXAMPLE...THE RECORD LOW THURSDAY NIGHT IN
PADUCAH IS 14 (1963) AND WE ANTICIPATE BREAKING THAT WITH A
FORECAST LOW OF 10. EVV RECORD OF 4 (1934) MAY EVEN BE APPROACHED
WITH OUR FORECAST LOW OF 6.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TYPE OTHER THAN WINTRY
MIX AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AT THE END OF THE WEEK
KEEPING THINGS RELATIVELY COLD BUT CALM. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUNDAY IT WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN ITS WAKE.
MONDAY WE WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 40S ONCE AGAIN CHANGING BACK TO
RAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE AND PRECIP. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE THIS WILL BE
THE BEST CHANCE OF A MEASURABLE SNOW AT THIS TIME. AS WE WARM UP
TUESDAY IT CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AGAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES
THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST FOR SURE. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

SOUNDING AND TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PRIMARY MOISTURE FROM
PIECES OF ENERGY NEARBY (NORTH AND SOUTH OF FLIGHT TERMINALS) MEAN
ANY CLOUDS/CIGS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD STAY IN MID TO HIGH FLIGHT
CATEGORY RANGE. LOWER VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH
(KCGI/KPAH) EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE MORE
THAN AN OSCILLATING SCT-BKN DECK.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DH


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