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000
FXUS63 KPAH 240456
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1156 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING SSE IN ASSOC WITH A SFC AND MID LEVEL TROF. BASED ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM...MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO
DECREASE OR MOVE ON TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA AND RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
THE END OF THE DAY FAR NW AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE CHANCE
WILL SPREAD SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT FOR NOW...STILL LOW CHANCE AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT. FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

GEM WAS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF YESTERDAY...AND NOW TODAY LOOKS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ECMWF...BRINGING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER BY 00Z MONDAY.  GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH ITS SOLUTION
OF KEEPING THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA.  WITH THE
GEM AND ECMWF FALLING INTO DECENT AGREEMENT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THEIR
SOLUTIONS.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GEM IS GEM SHOWS
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL QPF AMOUNTS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.  ECMWF AMOUNTS LOOK MORE REASONABLE IF THE FRONT DOES MAKE
IT THIS FAR SOUTH.  WENT WITH POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DECREASING POPS SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW
BECAUSE OF THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH I CAN NOT
COMPLETELY DISREGARD.  ALL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.  THIS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY MIDWEEK.

THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURES CHALLENGING...WITH
THE MEX GUIDANCE MUCH WARMER THAN THE ECE DUE TO THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT NORTH OF OUR REGION.  DUE TO THE DISCREPANCIES...STAYED CLOSE
TO THE ALL BLEND VALUES WHICH ARE A GOOD COMPROMISE OF THE
GUIDANCE.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MID WEEK WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING...WILL QUICKLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
THE LAST OF THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF KOWB
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...AND SKC WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AT ALL LOCATIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT WITH MIXING MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING A NORTHEAST
WIND AT 5 TO 10KTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CALM OR VERY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS