Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 161842
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
142 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Active onlging convection as noted by national radar mosaic and
lightning plot shows line extending from Iowa southwestward into
Oklahama. This feature, tied with a cold front and falling heights
aloft, will be the primary focusing mechanism for active
convection in the short term.

With dew points in the mid-upr 60s and daytime highs in the mid-
upr 80s, free parcel uplift won`t be hard given weak capping.
Better forcing, aforementioned, doesnt come into play in our area
really, until late Sunday night into Monday-Monday night time
periods. Diurnally, we`ll maintain a barely above silent mention
for heat of day pop ups tmrw at 15% or so. Otherwise, anticipate
slow crawl toward chance cat pops, best northwest, least
southeast, or tied to better focusing mechanism of the front and
trof aloft. This chance too, will be best during the heat of the
pm hours, particularly Monday. General thunder risk is for heavy
rain/lightning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Medium confidence in the extended.

Models are in fairly good agreement with the extended portion of the
forecast. We will start out the extended with a stalled cold front
to our north, transitioning/lifting north as a weak warm front.
There could be a lingering chance of a shower or storm as this
system exits under a weak perturbation aloft. This combined with
the heating of the day would be our best chance of precipitation.
May have to linger an isolated chc overnight as the ripple in the
flow aloft is slow to depart the region. We actually start to
ridge aloft as we head into Wednesday but a warm front is progged
to lift through the area as southwesterly flow sets up aloft and
at the surface. This will keep dew points well into the mid 60s
and possibly the low 70s early in the extended. With the
aforementioned flow well in place and abundant moisture
available...expect at least a slight chance for precipitation as
we head through the extended. However decreasing chances of
coverage as we head into the weekend. With the southwest flow
expect temperatures to remain above normal even with the
decreasing sun angle.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Scattered VFR bases may temporarily become broken during these
peak heating hours, in the 4.5-6K FT AGL range. With similar
synoptics and airmass tmrw pm, anticipate the same. Clearing
overnight sky/combined with little wind will yield patchy fog
again during the late night/early morning, which may offer vsby
restrictions. Isolated heat of day showers cannot be ruled out
tmrw, but chance appears low enough to preclude mention.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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