Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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128 FXUS63 KPAH 042026 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 326 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled weather pattern is taking shape with scattered showers and storms the rest of this weekend becoming more widespread by the middle of the week. Heavy rainfall and strong storm chances gradually increase by mid week as well. - Breezy south winds Tuesday and Wednesday associated with a developing low pressure system. - Warm temperatures remain through mid week before a cool off with lower humidity returns spring like temperatures and dew points late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Regional radar this afternoon shows isolated showers confined to far SE portions of the forecast area. The thermodynamic environment across the area is very unstable with CAPE`s approaching 2500-3000 j/kg. Fortunately wind fields aloft are weak keeping deep layer shear less than 10 knots at best. As a result chances of strong to severe storms are very low. A boundary resides further west tied to a northern stream disturbance moving across the northern plains. There is some uncertainty regarding how far east convection makes it tonight. The consensus from the CAMS suggest a weakening tend further into the night as its makes its progression into SEMO which makes sense with a quick loss of instability and little to no shear to otherwise support maintenance. The rest of tonight should be dry as a boundary pushes into the area. Deeper low level moisture arrives late tonight and early Sunday resulting in increasing stratus. Much of Sunday appears quiet, before an upper level shortwave moves in providing the next chance of more widespread rainfall. Chances of showers and storms increase Sunday afternoon and carry into Sunday night. Widespread rain showers will stick around for a good part of Monday associated with the upper level disturbance. The upper levels amplify Monday into Tuesday as a strong trough digs into the plains. The parent trough eventually elongates by midweek supporting southwest flow aloft through the rest of the week. Multiple periods of severe potential look possible Tuesday into Wednesday as a result of this pattern. This period features increasing upper level jet support leading to a deepening surface low developing across Missouri. The thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space will be more than sufficient for convective potential. Additionally, several rounds of precipitation will bring the threat of flooding, especially later in the week associated with the repeated rounds of rains. Eventually, we see some drier weather return toward the latter half of the forecast period. Northwesterly winds will advect a much drier airmass into the region behind a front. Temperatures appear to cool off by as much as 5-10 degrees with lower humidity. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 SCT to BKN 035-040kft bases expected this afternoon. Convection this afternoon should be mostly confined to south and east of OWB. Additional convection possible (low probability) tonight at CGI and MVN from roughly 00-03Z. An influx of low lvl moisture late tonight/early Sunday morning brings MVFR stratus to the terminals. This looks to stick around through the end of the 18z period. Winds will be light, around or less than 5 knots. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...AD