Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 071227
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
627 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 622 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 253 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Main weather story through the short term lies with a change to
much below normal temperatures as a modified arctic air mass
sinks southeast into the OH/MS River Valleys. A weak, moisture-
starved mid/upper level disturbance will precede the main push of
cold air tonight. Not expecting any impacts from this weak system,
and most areas will see nothing more than possibly a few sprinkles
or flurries. Though we will likely stay shy of record cold
Thu/Fri nights, barring any unexpected cloud cover, should see
many locations dip down well into the teens both nights. Max temps
Friday will likely stay in the upper 20s up along I-64 corridor,
with 30 to 35 most other areas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

High pressure will be centered to our east at the start of the
period. This high will continue shifting eastward as a sfc low
pressure system develops in the central Plains. The gradient
increases as this system pushes eastward throughout the day on
Saturday and into the evening. Winds become southeasterly or
southerly out ahead of it. This will mean a pretty good jump in high
temperatures on Saturday, with readings in the upper 30s.

While Saturday will be dry and these dry conditions will likely
continue into the evening hours, chances for precipitation start to
increase after 06Z Sunday and into the day on Sunday. Models are
still not in agreement on sfc low position and movement, temperature
profiles and QPF amounts. However, timing is a bit better. The
larger problem lies in precipitation types. Given the scenario that
some of the models are painting, one would think given the southerly
flow ahead of the sfc low, we should be warm enough for rain.
Looking at the past several GFS runs and the GFS ensembles, they
seem to be the most consistent right now, with showing the sfc low
moving northeast into the Great Lakes region on Sunday. While sfc
temperatures will initially drop after sunset, we could see temps
rising through the evening. However, at the onset of precipitation
late Saturday night into Sunday morning, we could have some wintry
precipitation to deal with, especially north. Given the multiple
possible temperature profile scenarios, we will not be able to get
too fancy with this wintry potential just yet, just mention the
possibility and fine tune as we go along.

While we may have a few hours in the morning on Sunday to deal with
more possible wintry wx, temperatures should rise and all rain is
expected. Models do agree right now that Sunday morning will have
the better chances for precipitation, with chances tapering off as
we head into the afternoon and especially into the evening hours.

Dry weather will return for Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 622 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period as high
pressure overspreads the region. A weak upper level disturbance
should bring no more than high VFR cigs tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP


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