Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 280245
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
945 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN TIMING OF CLOUD
COVER AND IN TEMPERATURE DROP AND LOWS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LOOKS ON TARGET AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SPRINKLES/FLURRIES CONTINUE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND DIMINISH AS THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF AXIS AND EMBEDDED ENERGY MOVES EAST. QUIET
WX THIS EVENING. HOWEVER OVER SEMO, IN PARTICULAR THE OZARK
FOOTHILL REGION LATE TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AS ANOTHER BATCH OF ENERGY MOVES SSE ACROSS MISSOURI
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW...THOUGH SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN AS WELL. BEST CHANCE WILL BE
WEST OF HIGHWAY 67. AFTER AN EARLY MORNING CHANCE...DRY WEATHER
REST OF SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT (HIGHEST CHANCES AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
NW TO SE) WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AND AN
AVERAGE OF MOS. FROST/FREEZE POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS SATURDAY
MORNING/SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH ITS A BIT TOO EARLY FOR HEADLINES
BASED ON PRIOR COORD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MEDIUM TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
LONG TERM...THEN DECREASING CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF DUE
TO LONG RANGE MODEL DISPARITY.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A SHORT
WAVE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS RUN
IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO SO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IT AND THE DRY ECMWF. THIS IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE.

MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD CONTINUE TO GROW
FARTHER APART WITH TIME...THEREFORE NOT TOO CONFIDENT WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING RETURN MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO
THE AREA...BRINGING A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THEN CENTERING OUR AREA UNDER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR FEATURES BUT LAGS BEHIND THE GFS AROUND 24
HOURS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY DECIDED TO JUST KEEP CHC/SCHC POPS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HOPEFULLY WITH TIME MODELS WILL GET
ON THE SAME PAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BKN/OVC 5K FT CIGS SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 02Z-04Z, THOUGH IF
THEY DO NOT CLEAR BY THEN, THEY MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FOR
NOW, WILL ALLOW FOR THE CLEARING TO OCCUR SHORTLY AFT SUNSET. N-NE
WINDS WILL BE AOB 06 KTS.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
AVIATION...GM


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