000
FXUS63 KPAH 150843
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
343 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

A N-S H5 RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN PLANTED OVER THE REGION FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL GET SUPPRESSED TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN
THE PROCESS PRECIP CHANCES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN
AND/OR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LACK OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

BEYOND THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO SAG SLOWLY TOWARD OUR CWA. AGAIN DUE TO
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLOWLY WITH TIME THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY DRAWS NEARER.

THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ON MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
ACTUALLY CROSSES THE REGION. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS TO HOW
THE POPS/QPF EVOLVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ON
MONDAY THE REGION WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.

PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THE EXTENDED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
THEN MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. BY LATE THURSDAY THE MODELS THE
MODELS AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER TX...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE NW FLOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE
A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES
NORTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. IF A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE
FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WE COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. RIGHT NOW THE SIGNALS ARE WEAK AND THE CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW...SO LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW. WE MAY END UP PUTTING IT BACK INTO THE
FORECAST IF THE SIGNAL BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BUT FOR NOW PREFER
DRY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PLACING LIKELY POPS IN DAY 7 AND 8 FOR
THREE DAYS NOW AT LEAST. THIS IS COMMON BIAS OF THE MODELS AND
OCCURS OFTEN AND WILL KEEP IT DRY AS WELL UNTIL THE MORE CONFIDENCE
CAN BE GLEANED.

AGAIN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPS WHICH IS GOOD SIGN OF CONFIDENCE.
IN CONTRAST THE ALLBLEND HAS BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES TOO MOIST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...WHICH IS COMMON AS WELL...AND HAVE TWEAKED
DOWN ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

VERY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL START UP AGAIN IN THE MORNING OUT OF
THE SW AND GENERALLY BELOW 10 KTS. ONLY CLOUDS WILL BE MAINLY THE
HIGH VARIETY...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM CONVECTION OVER IA...AND
NRN PARTS OF MO AND IL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH