Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 251537
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
937 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SENSIBLE WEATHER ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CLOUD
COVER EARLIER IN THE MORNING. ALSO, GIVEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH MISSOURI, HAD TO ADJUST
WIND, TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT FIELDS TO REFLECT THE AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 CST WED FEB 25 2015

LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MAY ACTUALLY GET A BIT OF SNOW PACK MELT TODAY
BEFORE NEXT ARCTIC PUSH ARRIVES IN EARNEST TONIGHT/FRI. MANY
LOCATIONS SHOULD GET ABOVE FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE NERN GULF COAST TODAY/THIS EVENING.
MAY BRING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO OUR FAR S/E
COUNTIES...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY REAL IMPACTS FROM THIS. A
WEAKENING CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW WILL THEN PUSH SE TOWARD SW MO AND
NR AR TONIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR SPILLS IN. MODELS TEND TO AGREE
THAT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL IN OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT/THU WITH
THE WEAKENING LOW...BUT BEARS KEEPING AN EYE ON JUST IN CASE IT
DOES NOT WEAKEN AS QUICKLY AS DEPICTED. LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS
COULD BE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE COLD AIR.

THE COLDEST MORNINGS LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
WILL BE COMMONPLACE...WITH COLDEST READINGS UP ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIRLY CONSTANT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS, THUS
HIGH CONFIDENCE, IN A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER, DIFFERENCE IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES LEADS
TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TYPE OTHER THAN WINTRY MIX AT THIS TIME.

WE CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY ON SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE NIGHT, DISTURBANCES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO GOOD
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCES MIGHT ACTUALLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESS VALUES YIELD MAINLY SNOW, IF PRECIPITATION
STARTS EARLY IN THE EVENING. SFC WINDS GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OR TO ALL RAIN
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY POINTS FURTHER
SOUTH. OUR NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WHEN EXACTLY THE CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL STILL TAKE TIME TO SETTLE OUT.
THEREFORE, WILL LEAVE A WINTRY MIX GOING FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A
BOUNDARY, WHICH PASSES THROUGH BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND SWITCHES WINDS
BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH
COLD AIR TRIES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE
GFS IS WARMER AND LEAVES US WARM ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ALL LIQUID. THE
ECMWF IS COLDER BUT IT DOES DRAG MOST OF THE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. A
LARGE TROUGH WILL MOVE DOWN THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BEEN NOT HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM AND AS WE HEAD EVEN DEEPER INTO THE EXTENDED, THINGS GET EVEN
WORSE WHEN MODELS HAVE TO DEAL WITH ANOTHER TROUGH RIGHT BEHIND THIS
ONE. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY SLOWS DOWN THE INITIAL TROUGH SO MUCH THAT
BY THE TIME THE SECONDARY TROUGH COMES DOWN THE PIKE, IT MERGES WITH
IT. SO STILL LOTS OF TIME FOR MODELS TO GAIN A HANDLE ON HOW THINGS
WILL SHAKE OUT. BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 748 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z AND 12Z TAF PERIODS
AS OUR REGION REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN A SYSTEM OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
ANOTHER TO THE NORTH/WEST.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW



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