006
FXUS63 KPAH 262359
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
659 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple chances of rain and storms forecast through next week
  with the most widespread rains expected late Sunday through
  Monday evening.

- Severe storms are possible mainly over southeast Missouri and
  southern Illinois late this afternoon into tonight and again
  late Sunday into Sunday night.

- South winds will gust up to 30 mph Saturday, and 30-40 mph
  Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Updated aviation section for 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

As of this afternoon an upper level shortwave was evident in WV
imagery moving into the northern plains while a surface low was
moving into NE. A warm front extends from this low across E KS,
C MO, and into portions of W KY. Visible imagery shows
extensive clearing has taken place across W KY and W TN. This
area seems to have a pocket of dry air aloft which should keep
things clear this afternoon, albeit the increasing instability.
The line of showers and embedded thunderstorms that was located
across south central MO this morning has fallen apart as it
moved away from better forcing parked to the west. Additional
development was noted across NW AR and SW MO that is lifting
northeast. This seems to be resolved well in the CAMs.
Additional chances of showers and thunderstorms may be possible
this afternoon and overnight mainly across SE MO and southern
IL. The main threat from this activity would be damaging winds
with the probability of strong/severe storms still low given
that the better forcing is well west and meager instability.

Another disturbance and associated low pressure center will develop
across the plains this weekend and will gradually move north into
the Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday night. A strengthening pressure
gradient between the low situated in the plains, and a surface high
off the East Coast will bring breezy south winds this weekend. A
boundary is expected to move through the Quad State late Sunday into
Monday and will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the
area. At this time, the warm sector airmass looks to be
characterized by meager instability. The southern end of an h50
jet max will likely bring increasing bulk shear through the
region although this jet core will be lifting out rather
quickly. Thus, the environment doesn`t look overly impressive
and favorable for severe weather across our area, and the
current thinking remains the same that a line of storms will
likely be moving through the region with a weakening trend. A
damaging wind risk seems possible with any stronger convection.
Heavy rains, especially in any convection, will be possible as
the system moves through with PWAT values near 1.50 inches. Not
expected any widespread flooding issues given the progressive
nature of this system.

Guidance favors a more zonal upper level pattern taking shape
Tuesday through Thursday. Additionally, we will remain a southerly
flow regime through much of the week favoring a moist and warm
airmass with temperatures climbing into the 80`s. This pattern
suggests chances of showers and storms at times which the NBM has a
good handle on. With that said, models haven`t been in solid
agreement over the past few days leading to lower confidence during
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

At KCGI/KMVN, VFR conditions with scattered shra/isolated tsra
between 02z-09z. KCGI could again see some isolated to scattered
shra/tsra between 15z-21z. MVFR vsbys possible with storms.  At
KPAH, VFR conditions expected with isolated/scattered shra
possible between 06z-14z. At KEVV/KOWB, conditions will be VFR
with potential LLWS between 05z-14z at 020/19040kt. At all
sites, surface winds will be from the south to southeast at
7-14kts with gusts of 18-23kts, increasing to 10-20kts with
gusts around 25 kts after 13z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...RST