Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FGUS73 KPAH 072104
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-080900-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
304 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN MID WEEK...

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF MISSOURI TUESDAY
NIGHT...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES, AND THE OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS MAY
BEGIN TO CAUSE PROBLEMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, EVENTUALLY EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
AND PARTS OF FAR WEST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FALL WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE
LONGEVITY OF THE RAINFALL IS THE MAIN CONCERN AND NOT RAINFALL
RATES. HOWEVER...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...MORE EXTREME RATES
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY FROM POPLAR
BLUFF WESTWARD.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OF FOUR TO
FIVE INCHES MAY BE COMMONPLACE IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FARTHER EAST ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY...WITH ONE TO TWO
INCHES OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY.

SOILS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ALREADY MOIST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR RUNOFF OF WATER OVER THE GROUND...QUICKLY FILLING
SMALL DITCHES...CREEKS...AND STREAMS.

THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY IN THE EXACT TIMING...TRACK AND
AMOUNT OF HEAVY RAIN...SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST UPDATES AND FORECASTS.

$$

JP



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