Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FGUS73 KPAH 070938
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-072145-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
338 AM CST MON MAR 7 2016

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN BY MID WEEK...

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF MISSOURI TUESDAY
NIGHT, SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES, AND THE OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS MAY BEGIN TO
CAUSE PROBLEMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI, EVENTUALLY EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND PARTS
OF FAR WEST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR WEST KENTUCKY. THE LONGEVITY OF THE
RAINFALL IS THE MAIN CONCERN AND NOT RAINFALL RATES. HOWEVER,
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, MORE EXTREME RATES MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES, ESPECIALLY FROM POPLAR BLUFF WESTWARD.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OF FOUR TO
FIVE INCHES MAY BE COMMONPLACE IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FARTHER
EAST ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TWO TO FOUR INCH RANGE.

SOILS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ALREADY MOIST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR RUNOFF OF WATER OVER THE GROUND, FILLING SMALL
DITCHES, CREEKS, AND STREAMS.

THERE WILL BE SOME VARIABILITY IN THE EXACT TIMING, TRACK AND
AMOUNTS OF THE HEAVY RAIN, SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$



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