Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1210 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time
period for late February through late May. It includes the mid-
Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for southwest
Indiana...southern Illinois...west Kentucky and southeast Missouri.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...

Flood potential is average or near normal for this time of year.
Minor flooding is expected due to rain and snow melt. Flooding in
this region occurs mainly due to conditions of ground
moisture...river flows...and expected precipitation. Ice jams are
rarely a factor in flooding in this part of the country.

...Current Conditions...

Snow...Frost and Soil Conditions...A recent warmup has caused much of
the regional snow to melt. Soil moisture is above normal for this
time of year. Reservoir levels are near normal.

In the upper parts of the Mississippi River basin there is still 12
to 24 inches of snow with a water equivalent of 2 to 6 inches. In the
upper parts of the Ohio River basin there is still 6 to 12 inches of
snow with a water eqivalent of 1 to 2 inches.

Streamflow conditions are near to above normal.

In January, regional average temperatures and precipitation totals
were below normal and this trend has continued into February.

...Probabilistic Outlooks...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  2/24/2014 - 5/25/2014

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Ohio River
Evansville          42.0   48.0   52.0 :  35   31   <5   <5   <5   <5
Golconda            40.0   50.0   55.0 :  52   49    6    7   <5   <5
Mount Vernon        35.0   45.0   52.0 :  79   79    8    8   <5   <5
Newburgh Dam        38.0   48.0   56.0 :  89   90    5    5   <5   <5
Owensboro           40.0   45.0   49.0 :  43   38    7    7   <5   <5
Shawneetown         33.0   43.0   53.0 :  88   91   44   42   <5    5
J.T. Myers Dam      37.0   50.0   60.0 :  81   85    7    8   <5   <5
:Wabash River
New Harmony         15.0   20.0   23.0 :  84   89   24   28   <5   <5
:Green River
Calhoun             23.0   26.0   32.0 :  42   42   28   28    9    7
Paradise           380.0  386.0  400.0 :  70   70   35   35   20   21
:Little Wabash River
Carmi               27.0   32.0   35.0 :  63   67   35   36   20   19
:Patoka River
Princeton           18.0   20.0   22.0 :  58   63   42   43   24   23
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City          15.0   17.0   20.0 :  42   42   34   34   21   21
:Black River
Poplar Bluff        16.0   19.0   21.0 : <20  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20
:Current River
Doniphan            13.0   18.0   22.0 :  11   15  <20  <20  <20  <20
Van Buren           20.0   23.0   27.0 : <20  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20
:St. Francis River
Fisk                20.0   22.0   26.0 :  15  <20   12  <20  <20  <20
Patterson           16.0   25.0   32.0 :  45  <20   11  <20  <20  <20
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield           20.0   25.0   34.0 :  43   41   15   15   <5   <5
Murphysboro         22.0   28.0   36.0 :  69   67   27   30    7    6

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 2/24/2014 - 5/25/2014
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Ohio River
Evansville           31.2   34.0   37.4   40.6   43.0   43.7   46.1
Golconda             35.0   35.5   37.5   40.3   44.5   47.4   51.1
Mount Vernon         29.9   32.7   36.0   39.2   42.5   43.8   47.4
Newburgh Dam         35.2   37.8   40.8   43.2   44.9   45.9   48.2
Owensboro            31.5   33.9   36.3   39.4   41.9   43.7   46.6
Shawneetown          31.9   32.7   37.4   41.9   46.6   49.3   52.7
J.T. Myers Dam       33.9   34.7   38.9   42.1   46.0   48.2   51.7
:Wabash River
New Harmony          12.5   14.0   16.6   18.0   20.0   21.1   21.6
:Green River
Calhoun              15.1   16.0   17.3   21.4   26.7   32.0   32.7
Paradise            374.7  377.1  379.3  383.1  388.2  394.5  397.6
:Little Wabash River
Carmi                19.7   21.6   25.3   28.9   34.4   36.3   37.5
:Patoka River
Princeton            13.1   13.3   15.5   19.2   21.9   24.8   24.9
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City            8.1    8.8   10.5   13.0   19.5   21.5   24.1
:Black River
Poplar Bluff          3.6    7.0    8.7    9.4    9.5    9.5    9.5
:Current River
Doniphan              1.6    3.0    4.4    6.0    6.7    8.7   10.8
Van Buren             4.3    5.2    6.4    7.9    8.7   10.1   12.6
:St. Francis River
Fisk                  2.4    8.2   10.3   10.8   11.9   13.3   16.5
Patterson             8.3   11.0   13.8   15.2   16.9   18.4   20.9
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield            13.9   15.1   17.2   19.6   22.5   29.6   32.4
Murphysboro          16.4   17.3   20.1   23.7   29.1   35.1   39.0

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 2/24/2014 - 5/25/2014
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield             7.6    7.2    6.4    5.7    4.9    4.4    4.3
Murphysboro          11.5   11.1    8.8    7.1    5.4    5.1    4.9

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

...Weather Outlooks...
In the short term, a strong storm system will move across the region
this afternoon and evening bringing showers and storms. Rainfall
amounts should average around 1 inch or less. Warm temperatures will
give way to cooler and drier conditions as we head toward the end of
the month.

The 8 to 14 day outlook for February 27 through March 5 is for below
normal temperatures and normal to above normal precipitation. During
this time, normal average temperatures are in the lower 40s and
rainfall during this time period is a little over three-quarters of
an inch.

The outlook for March is for climatological conditions for
temperatures and precipitation, meaning equal chances of above,
normal and below normal conditions. Normal precipitation for March is
between 4 and 4 1/2 inches.  The seasonal outlook for March through
May calls for normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

...Additional Information...

This is the first of two Spring Flood and Water Resource Outlooks for
the season. Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and
water information.

The next outlook will be issued March 6 2014.

$$

ML






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