Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FGUS73 KPAH 101111
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-111200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
611 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...HEAVY RAIN EVENT STILL SHAPING UP...

SINCE MIDDAY YESTERDAY...PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND THE
SOUTHERN PURCHASE AREA OF KENTUCKY HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL. PRIOR TO THAT...PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS RECEIVED GENERALLY A HALF INCH TO AN INCH. THIS MAY BE AN
INDICATOR OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO COME.

NWS RAINFALL FORECASTS STILL OUTLOOK THE QUAD STATE REGION IN A
BROAD AND GENERAL RANGE FROM ABOUT 3 INCHES ON A LOW END...TO
PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 INCHES ON THE HIGH END...THROUGH TUESDAY.

FORTUNATELY...DUE TO THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND THE FACT THAT
THESE RAINS LOOK TO BE SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL DAYS TIME PERIOD...IT
WOULD STILL APPEAR OUR AREA CAN HANDLE THESE AMOUNTS IF NOT TOO MUCH
OF IT FALLS IN TOO SHORT A TIME PERIOD.

AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE WEEKEND...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE QUAD STATE REGION WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...CONTINUING TO TRIGGER INTERVALS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAINS AT TIMES.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE ENTIRE WEATHER SYSTEM
MAKES PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...AND
IF ENOUGH RAINFALL HAS FALLEN TODAY AND DURING THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND...FOR HEIGHTENED FLOODING CONCERNS.

THE NWS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS OCCURRING IN A
SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME...WHICH MAY IMPACT FLASHY RIVER POINTS SUCH AS
IN THE MISSOURI OZARKS OR MORE FLOOD PRONE URBANIZED LOCALES.

STAY TUNED TO FUTURE NWS WEATHER AND RIVER FORECASTS AND
UPDATES...AND PREPARE FOR A WET FORECAST FOR THE COMING 5 DAYS.

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