Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FGUS73 KPAH 091702
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-101800-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1203 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014

...HEAVY RAIN EVENT STILL SHAPING UP...

THE EXTENDED DURATION RAIN EVENT HAS TECHNICALLY BEGUN...WITH MOST
HEARTLAND LOCATIONS RECEIVING AVERAGED RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE ONE
QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY TODAY.
THIS HAS SET THE STAGE FOR THE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER RAINFALL FORECASTS STILL OUTLOOK THE QUAD
STATE IN A BROAD AND GENERAL RANGE FROM ABOUT 3 INCHES ON A LOW
END...TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 INCHES OR MORE ON THE HIGH
END...THROUGH TUESDAY.

FORTUNATELY...DUE TO THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND THE FACT THAT
THESE RAINS LOOK TO BE SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL DAYS TIME PERIOD...IT
WOULD STILL APPEAR OUR AREA CAN HANDLE THESE AMOUNTS IF TOO MUCH OF
IT DOES NOT FALL IN TOO SHORT A TIME PERIOD.

AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THE EVOLVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE SETTING UP AND EXTENDING ITSELF ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. NUMEROUS WAVES OF ENERGY IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL
SHOOT OUT AND OVERTOP THE BOUNDARY...INDUCING MORE STORMS AND
RAINFALL...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS AT TIMES.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE ENTIRE WEATHER SYSTEM
MAKES PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE TIME FOR STRONG
STORMS...AND IF ENOUGH RAINFALL HAS FALLEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND...FOR HEIGHTENED FLOODING
CONCERNS.

THE NWS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS OCCURRING IN A
SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WHICH MAY IMPACT FLASHY RIVER POINTS LIKE IN
THE MISSOURI OZARKS OR MORE FLOOD PRONE URBANIZED LOCALES.

STAY TUNED TO FUTURE NWS WEATHER AND RIVER FORECASTS AND
UPDATES...AND PREPARE FOR A WET FORECAST FOR THE COMING 7 DAYS.

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