Text Products for FWS Issued by PAH

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Versions: 1 2
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FNUS73 KPAH 141235
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Murray state learn and burn...KDFWR
National Weather Service Paducah KY
735 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

.REST OF TODAY...

Mixing heights should increase to around 3000 ft by midday with
southwest winds increasing by later this morning. Smoke dispersion
should improve to good by midday. RH values will drop to
around 35 percent this afternoon.

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........64 at ignition...Max 80.
RH..................60 percent at ignition...Min 36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds south at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Southwest winds 7 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 22 mph increasing to 26 to 28
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /13300 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /80800 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Weather type....M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Tstm cov........M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............64  68  71  73  76  78  79  79  80  80
RH..............60  53  47  43  40  37  38  38  36  36
20 FT wind dir..S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   10  15  16  15  15  15  15  14  14
20 FT wind gust.21  24  23  23  23  22  23  23  22  21
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.4 2.1 2.7 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.1
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.16  22  26  28  28  28  28  28  26  26
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13  27  47  64  68  79  81  79  77  72
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 62.
RH..................Max 84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 7 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 23 mph decreasing to 10 to 16
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (46500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Weather type....M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Tstm cov........M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............79  77  74  71  69  68  67  66  66  65  64  64
RH..............39  43  48  53  59  61  63  65  68  70  75  78
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT wind spd..13  12  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  9   8   7
20 FT wind gust.20  17  15  16  16  15  16  16  15  14  12  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.23  16  15  13  14  15  14  16  15  14  12  10
Haines index....5   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..47  12  7   6   6   6   6   11  8   7   5   4
Ventrate Cat....FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming mostly
                    sunny (40-50 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 82.
RH..................Min 49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....M      M      M      M      M
Weather type....M      M      M      M      M      NONE
Tstm cov........M      M      M      M      M
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............63     65     73     77     81     82
RH..............78     81     66     62     54     49
20 FT wind dir..S      S      SW     SW     S      S
20 FT wind spd..7      7      8      8      8      8
20 FT wind gust.10     10     13     13     13     13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5    0.9    1.3    2.2    3.0    3.0
Transp wind dir.SW     SW     SW     SW     SW     S
Transp wind spd.9      12     12     10     10     10
Haines index....3      3      3      3      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4      9      14     20     28     27
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...GIBBS
Requested by...Cody M Rhioden
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410709.0/PAH
.DELDT 04/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cody.rhoden@ky.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
